Brasileirão Série A, Round 32: Flamengo plays last
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Round 32 of the Brasileirão, match by match: the title race between Flamengo and Palmeiras, the Libertadores places and the relegation fight.
The round's thesis
Round 32 reads back to front: Flamengo, top by one point, doesn't take the field until Monday, after seeing what Palmeiras did on Saturday. Whoever plays first creates the pressure; whoever plays last decides what to do with it. At the bottom, the order is the same: Internacional, Grêmio, Remo and Chapecoense are fighting over the relegation zone in matches spread across four days, and every Saturday result changes what Monday is worth.
What is at stake
The title is between Flamengo and Palmeiras, separated by one point in the table: if Palmeiras beats Bragantino on Saturday, Flamengo needs to beat Atlético-MG on Monday to stay in front. The race for the four direct Libertadores places has Athletico-PR and Cruzeiro inside them, with Fluminense and Atlético-MG right behind; Cruzeiro and Fluminense are level on points, and both play this round, one at home to Remo, the other away to Chapecoense. At the bottom of the table, Internacional, Grêmio, Remo and Chapecoense currently occupy the four relegation spots, with Corinthians barely clear of Internacional. Chapecoense, Vasco, Corinthians and Vitória have played one game fewer than the other clubs, which weighs on how the bottom half reads.
This round's matches
Anchor matchFlamengo vs Atlético-MGMonday, October 26, 20:00
It's the anchor game because the round turns on it: Flamengo, the leader, plays last, already knowing what Palmeiras did earlier. At home the team has won 11 of its 15. Atlético-MG, in sixth, has lost 8 of its 15 away games, but is unbeaten in its last five and still trying to reach the top four.
Flamengo72%
Draw18%
Atlético-MG10%
Cruzeiro vs RemoFriday, October 23, 20:00
The round opens on Friday with fourth-placed Cruzeiro at home to Remo, which sits in the relegation zone and hasn't won any of its last five. Cruzeiro has lost only 3 of its 15 home games, against 7 of 16 away: home is the team's strength, and that's where the club is trying to cement its place in the top four.
Cruzeiro72%
Draw18%
Remo12%
Vitória vs Athletico-PRSaturday, October 24, 16:30
Athletico-PR sits third and is defending a direct spot in the Libertadores group stage at a tough ground: Vitória has won 10 of its 15 home games. Athletico, for its part, has lost 6 of its 15 away. The match tests whether the top four can survive a tough trip.
Vitória37%
Draw28%
Athletico-PR34%
Palmeiras vs BragantinoSaturday, October 24, 18:30
Palmeiras is second, one point behind Flamengo, and plays on Saturday, before its rival: whoever wins puts pressure on the team that only takes the field two days later. Palmeiras has won four of its last five and 11 of its 15 at home. Bragantino has won once in its last five and only 4 of its 16 away.
Palmeiras62%
Draw22%
Bragantino16%
Vasco da Gama vs CorinthiansSaturday, October 24, 18:30
Two bottom-half clubs meet with the relegation fight still open. Corinthians has lost its last five; Vasco has won three of its last five and wants to use home advantage to pull away.
Vasco da Gama56%
Draw24%
Corinthians18%
Chapecoense vs FluminenseSaturday, October 24, 19:30
Chapecoense, bottom of the table, has lost 7 of its 14 home games and four of its last five. Fluminense, in fifth, has won twice and lost three times in its last five and won only 3 of its 15 away. The visitor is the favorite on paper, but its away record calls for caution.
Chapecoense22%
Draw26%
Fluminense52%
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, October 23
20:00 — Cruzeiro vs Remo · Cruzeiro 72%
Saturday, October 24
16:30 — Internacional vs Botafogo · Internacional 50%
16:30 — Vitória vs Athletico-PR · Vitória 37%
16:30 — Mirassol vs São Paulo · Mirassol 43%
18:30 — Palmeiras vs Bragantino · Palmeiras 62%
18:30 — Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians · Vasco da Gama 56%
19:30 — Chapecoense vs Fluminense · Fluminense 52%
21:00 — Santos vs Bahia · Santos 50%
Monday, October 26
19:30 — Coritiba vs Grêmio · Coritiba 44%
20:00 — Flamengo vs Atlético-MG · Flamengo 72%
The first block
Friday and Saturday set up the round. Cruzeiro opens on Friday against a Remo side without a win in its last five, and Saturday holds what's at stake: Palmeiras hosts Bragantino and decides how much pressure Flamengo will carry into Monday; Athletico-PR visits a Vitória side that has won 10 of its 15 home games, in a match that could cost the third-placed team its edge over the rest of the top four. Chapecoense vs Fluminense puts the bottom side up against a top-four contender, and Vasco vs Corinthians brings together two clubs from the bottom half. Internacional vs Botafogo and Santos vs Bahia complete Saturday, the first with Internacional needing to get out of the relegation zone, the second between two clubs eyeing the Copa Sul-Americana places.
The second block
Monday answers what Friday and Saturday set up, and the whole weekend reads through what each result changes for the teams that play afterward. Coritiba vs Grêmio comes at 19:30: Grêmio hasn't won any of its 15 away games and needs points against, of all teams, a Coritiba without a win in its last five, which makes the result, whatever it is, relevant to the relegation fight. At 20:00, Flamengo vs Atlético-MG closes the round: the leader goes in already knowing what Palmeiras did on Saturday and is the one who decides whether its lead in the table grows, holds or disappears.
Round news
No source-confirmed news for this round as of Tuesday the 20th.
Absences
The league database shows no confirmed absences for any of the ten matches as of Tuesday the 20th. Anything that emerges close to each match is not on this page.
Scenarios
Flamengo ends the round on top.
Palmeiras beats Bragantino at home.
Athletico-PR holds third place at the end of the round.
Corinthians ends its losing run against Vasco.
Chapecoense takes points at home against Fluminense.
Round table: Chapecoense, Vasco, Corinthians and Vitória have a game in hand
Position
Team
Points
Played
Goal difference
1
Flamengo
67
31
36
2
Palmeiras
66
31
32
3
Athletico-PR
53
31
12
4
Cruzeiro
51
31
4
5
Fluminense
51
31
10
6
Atlético-MG
50
31
7
7
Bahia
49
31
5
8
Santos
45
31
2
9
São Paulo
42
31
1
10
Bragantino
41
31
3
11
Botafogo
39
31
-4
12
Coritiba
39
31
-11
13
Vitória
36
30
-11
14
Mirassol
36
31
-8
15
Vasco da Gama
35
30
-7
16
Corinthians
32
30
-7
17
Internacional
32
31
-7
18
Grêmio
31
31
-10
19
Remo
26
31
-15
20
Chapecoense
18
30
-32
Where each match's two teams stand
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Cruzeiro
Remo
4
55
4
51
WLWWL
19
28
-15
26
DDDLL
Internacional
Botafogo
17
34
-7
32
LDWLW
11
42
-4
39
WDLLW
Mirassol
São Paulo
14
39
-8
36
WLDWD
9
45
1
42
WWLLW
Vitória
Athletico-PR
13
40
-11
37
DLWLD
3
57
12
53
LWDWD
Palmeiras
Bragantino
2
71
32
66
WWWDW
10
44
3
41
DWDLL
Vasco da Gama
Corinthians
15
39
-7
35
LDWWW
16
35
-7
33
DLLLL
Chapecoense
Fluminense
20
20
-32
18
LLLDL
5
55
10
51
LLWWL
Santos
Bahia
8
48
2
45
WLDWW
7
53
5
49
LWLLW
Coritiba
Grêmio
12
42
-11
39
LDLLD
18
33
-10
31
LDDDL
Flamengo
Atlético-MG
1
72
36
67
WWDWW
6
54
7
50
WWDWD
Scenarios observed this season for the round's clubs
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than in the first
60
First goal before the 30th minute
26
One of the teams fails to score
23
What the market sees in each match
Home
Away
Favorite
Favorite (%)
Gap (points)
Conviction (0-100)
Balance
Cruzeiro
Remo
Cruzeiro
71
60
57
Low
Internacional
Botafogo
Internacional
50
27
25
Medium
Mirassol
São Paulo
Mirassol
43
15
14
High
Vitória
Athletico-PR
Vitória
37
9
5
High
Palmeiras
Bragantino
Palmeiras
62
47
43
Low
Vasco da Gama
Corinthians
Vasco da Gama
56
38
34
Low
Chapecoense
Fluminense
Fluminense
50
28
25
Medium
Santos
Bahia
Santos
50
25
25
Medium
Coritiba
Grêmio
Coritiba
44
17
16
Medium
Flamengo
Atlético-MG
Flamengo
72
62
58
Low
Índice Macro for the round
Component
Value
Maximum
Where it came from
Data
32
32
10 of 10 round matches · 20 clubs in the competition table · 20 clubs with season statistics · 10 of 10 matches with a published market
Context
25
27
10 of 10 matches with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away record · 15 clubs in a qualification or relegation zone
Trends
22
22
10 of 10 matches with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
10 of 10 matches with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with record of games without scoring
Índice Macro
98
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Flamengo vs Atlético-MG
The market has Flamengo as a clear favorite and places the game among the most lopsided of the round, meaning it sees little chance of an upset on Monday.
Cruzeiro vs Remo
The market has Cruzeiro as a clear favorite, and that matches what the table shows: a strong home side against a visitor winless in five.
Vitória vs Athletico-PR
The market sees an open game, with a slight edge to Vitória, the home side, even against the third-placed team. It's the most evenly priced matchup of the round.
Palmeiras vs Bragantino
The market makes Palmeiras a comfortable favorite, consistent with home advantage and the winning run, and gives Bragantino little room.
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
The market gives Vasco, the home side, the edge over a Corinthians team without recent wins, without treating the game as settled.
Chapecoense vs Fluminense
The market sees Fluminense as the favorite despite its weakness away from home, and treats the gap between the two in the table as the strongest factor in the game.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Índice Macro measures, from 0 to 100, how much of this round's reading rests on data that has come in. It is the sum of four parts, each with a cap: data (32), context (27), trends (22) and scenarios (19). This round, data, trends and scenarios came in complete, at 32 of 32, 22 of 22 and 19 of 19. Context scored 25 of 27, because 15 of the 20 clubs have something at stake in the table, a continental place or relegation. The total is 98 of 100. Markets are used only to count how many matches have a published market; prices never enter the calculation.
Flamengo 72%
Atlético-MG 10%
Cruzeiro 72%
Remo 12%
Vitória 37%
Athletico-PR 34%
Palmeiras 62%
Vasco da Gama 56%
Corinthians 18%
Chapecoense 22%
Fluminense 52%
