Ligue 1, Matchday 9: PSG at Le Havre and Lille vs Lens open the weekend

280views

1.The round's thesis

2.What is at stake

3.This round's matches

4.Every match this round

5.The round

6.Scenarios

7.Ligue 1 standings before the round

8.Team form for each match

9.What the round changed for the next one

9.1.At the top

9.2.At the bottom

9.3.Surprises

10.Results

11.Goal scenarios observed among this round's clubs

12.The market favorite in each game

13.This round's Índice Macro

14.What the market says

14.1.Lille vs Lens

14.2.Le Havre vs PSG

14.3.Nice vs Rennes

14.4.Troyes vs Le Mans

14.5.Strasbourg vs Auxerre

14.6.Paris FC vs Monaco

15.How the Macro Index is computed

16.Sources

17.Read also

Ligue 1's ninth round: PSG visits the bottom side, Lille faces Lens and the bottom clubs battle for breathing room.

The round's thesis

PSG visits the bottom side on Friday with a narrow lead, and the chasing pack — Rennes, Lille, Monaco, Lyon, Paris FC and Lens — is bunched just behind: an unexpected result changes who sits second. At the bottom, the round decides whether Troyes, Strasbourg and Le Havre get some breathing room or stay stuck in the bottom three.

What is at stake

Title race: PSG holds a narrow lead over Rennes, which visits a Nice side unbeaten at home; if PSG wins on Friday and Rennes slips up on Saturday, the gap grows. Top spots: third through seventh are tightly packed, and four of those clubs face each other in Lille vs Lens and Paris FC vs Monaco. Relegation: bottom-placed Le Havre is winless in eight games and hosts PSG; Troyes, 17th, hosts Le Mans, 15th, and Strasbourg, 16th, hosts Auxerre, 12th — these are the two games where the lower sides can close the gap on those above.

This round's matches

Anchor match

Lille

Friday, October 30

Lens

Third meets seventh in the round's most evenly matched game. Lille is unbeaten at home this season; Lens arrives with three straight wins but has won only once in four away games. A Lens win takes it above Lille in the table, making this a pivotal game in the round.

Le Havre

Friday, October 30

PSG

PSG arrives on top, with five straight league wins and an unbeaten away record (three wins and two draws). Le Havre is bottom, winless in eight games and beaten in its last four. A win on Friday extends PSG's lead before Rennes plays.

Nice

Saturday, October 31

Rennes

Rennes, second just behind PSG, has lost two of its three away games. Nice is unbeaten at home (two wins and two draws) and has won three of its last five games. This is an away test for the side chasing the leader.

Troyes

Saturday, October 31

Le Mans

Two clubs near the bottom. Troyes, 17th, is winless at home (one draw and three losses) and has lost four of its last five games; Le Mans, 15th, is still winless away (two draws and two losses). The result decides who moves closer to the relegation zone and who moves away.

Strasbourg

Sunday, November 1

Auxerre

Strasbourg, 16th and in the relegation playoff spot, has lost its last four games. It hosts Auxerre, 12th, which has won three of its last five. Strasbourg needs a positive result at home to halt its slide.

Paris FC

Sunday, November 1

Monaco

Fourth-placed Monaco visits sixth-placed Paris FC in a stretch of the table where one result changes two or three positions. Paris FC is unbeaten at home (three wins and one draw); Monaco has won only one of its last five games.

Every match this round

All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).

Friday, October 30

15:00 — Le Havre vs PSG — PSG thrashed Le Havre 5-1 away and kept the lead.
17:05 — Lille vs Lens — Lille beat Lens 1-0 at home.

Saturday, October 31

13:15 — Nice vs Rennes — Nice thrashed Rennes 5-2 at home.
16:45 — Lyon vs Angers — Lyon beat Angers 2-0 at home.
16:45 — Lorient vs Brest — Brest beat Lorient 2-0 away.
16:45 — Troyes vs Le Mans — Troyes beat Le Mans 2-0 at home.

Sunday, November 1

11:00 — Strasbourg vs Auxerre — Strasbourg thrashed Auxerre 5-1 at home.
13:15 — Paris FC vs Monaco — Paris FC beat Monaco 3-1 at home.
16:45 — Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse — Olympique de Marseille beat Toulouse 2-0 at home.

The round

Friday sets the tone: PSG opens against the bottom side and Lille hosts Lens, with a Lens win taking it above Lille. On Saturday, second-placed Rennes faces an away test at Nice, Troyes hosts Le Mans in the meeting between the lowest-placed direct rivals, Lyon hosts Angers to stay in touch with the top sides, and Lorient hosts Brest in a meeting of two mid-table clubs. On Sunday, Strasbourg tries to end its losing streak against Auxerre, Paris FC hosts Monaco in the meeting between fourth and sixth, and Olympique de Marseille closes the round against a Toulouse side unbeaten away.

Scenarios

✓ PSG beats Le Havre and finishes the round on top. (held) PSG beat Le Havre 5-1 away and finishes the round at the top of the table.
✗ Lens beats Lille and moves above its rival in the table. (missed) Lille beat Lens 1-0 at home and stays above its rival; Lens finished ninth, behind second-placed Lille.
✓ Troyes wins at home for the first time this season, against Le Mans. (held) Troyes beat Le Mans 2-0 at home, the club's first home win of the season.
✓ Strasbourg avoids defeat against Auxerre and ends its losing streak. (held) Strasbourg thrashed Auxerre 5-1 at home and ended its losing streak.

Ligue 1 standings before the round

Pos.	Team	Points	Played	Wins	Draws	Losses	Goal difference
1	PSG	17	8	5	2	1	7
2	Rennes	16	8	5	1	2	4
3	Lille	15	8	4	3	1	5
4	Monaco	15	8	4	3	1	4
5	Lyon	14	8	4	2	2	6
6	Paris FC	14	8	4	2	2	4
7	Lens	13	8	4	1	3	4
8	Olympique de Marseille	12	8	4	0	4	5
9	Lorient	12	8	3	3	2	1
10	Nice	11	8	3	2	3	-2
11	Toulouse	10	8	2	4	2	1
12	Auxerre	10	8	3	1	4	-6
13	Brest	9	8	2	3	3	2
14	Angers	8	8	2	2	4	-6
15	Le Mans	7	8	1	4	3	-5
16	Strasbourg	7	8	2	1	5	-6
17	Troyes	5	8	1	2	5	-11
18	Le Havre	2	8	0	2	6	-7

Team form for each match

Home	Away	Pos. (home)	Points won % (home)	Goal difference (home)	Points (home)	Last 5 (home)	Pos. (away)	Points won % (away)	Goal difference (away)	Points (away)	Last 5 (away)
Le Havre	PSG	18	8	-7	2	LLLLD	1	71	7	17	WWWWW
Lille	Lens	3	62	5	15	DDWLW	7	54	4	13	WWWLD
Nice	Rennes	10	46	-2	11	WLWWL	2	67	4	16	WLWLW
Lorient	Brest	9	50	1	12	DWWLD	13	38	2	9	LDWLL
Lyon	Angers	5	58	6	14	LWLWD	14	33	-6	8	DLLWD
Troyes	Le Mans	17	21	-11	5	DLLLL	15	29	-5	7	DLLWD
Strasbourg	Auxerre	16	29	-6	7	LLLLD	12	42	-6	10	DWLWW
Paris FC	Monaco	6	58	4	14	LWLWD	4	62	4	15	DLDWD
Olympique de Marseille	Toulouse	8	50	5	12	WWWLL	11	42	1	10	DWDWD

What the round changed for the next one

At the top

PSG thrashed Le Havre 5-1 away and kept the lead. — PSG remains on top and hosts Troyes next round, a game that could extend its lead.
Lille beat Lens 1-0 at home. — Lille moved into second and visits Rennes next round, in a game that brings it closer to PSG or leaves it further behind.
Nice thrashed Rennes 5-2 at home. — Rennes dropped from second to fifth and hosts Lille, which moved above it: the game is a chance to rejoin the top group.
Paris FC beat Monaco 3-1 at home. — Paris FC moved into the top four and visits Auxerre; Monaco dropped to seventh and visits Le Mans.

The round reshaped the top of the table: PSG won big and stays on top, Lille overtook Rennes to go second, and Lyon and Paris FC, which also won, moved in just behind. Rennes, thrashed by Nice, dropped to fifth and faces Lille next. Rennes vs Lille now carries the most weight in the battle for the top spots, while Brest vs Lyon and Auxerre vs Paris FC will show whether Lyon and Paris FC can hold their new positions.

At the bottom

Troyes beat Le Mans 2-0 at home. — Troyes won at home for the first time and moved up into the playoff spot, but visits PSG next round; Le Mans, now second from bottom, hosts Monaco.
Strasbourg thrashed Auxerre 5-1 at home. — Strasbourg ended its losing streak and moved away from the bottom places; it visits Toulouse, just above it in the table.

At the bottom, two clubs swapped places: Troyes left the automatic relegation zone and Le Mans entered it, while Le Havre, thrashed by PSG, remains bottom and winless in nine games. Strasbourg's big win brought it close to Toulouse and Auxerre, and Toulouse vs Strasbourg decides who pulls away. Le Havre vs Lorient is the bottom side's chance for a first win, while Le Mans vs Monaco will show whether Le Mans can escape the automatic relegation zone.

Surprises

Brest beat Lorient 2-0 away. — Brest won away in a game where Lorient was seen as the favorite and now hosts third-placed Lyon; Lorient visits bottom-placed Le Havre.

Nobody expected Brest's away win over favored Lorient: it brought Brest close to Lorient in the table and gives the club a run to keep going against Lyon. For Lorient, the result removes its cushion in upper mid-table, and the game against Le Havre goes from a routine task to a test of its response.

Results

Goal scenarios observed among this round's clubs

Scenario	Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first	60
Opening goal before 30 minutes	23
One team fails to score	23

The market favorite in each game

Home	Away	Favorite	Favorite (%)	Gap to least likely (pp)	Confidence (0-100)	Balance
Le Havre	PSG	PSG	80	72	70	Low
Lille	Lens	Lille	38	11	7	High
Nice	Rennes	Rennes	41	16	11	Medium
Lorient	Brest	Lorient	38	9	7	High
Lyon	Angers	Lyon	70	59	55	Low
Troyes	Le Mans	Troyes	42	15	13	High
Strasbourg	Auxerre	Strasbourg	54	30	31	Medium
Paris FC	Monaco	Paris FC	42	16	13	Medium
Olympique de Marseille	Toulouse	Olympique de Marseille	50	27	25	Medium

This round's Índice Macro

Component	Value	Maximum	Source
Data	32	32	9 of 9 games in the round · 18 clubs in the league table · 18 clubs with season statistics · 9 of 9 games with published markets
Context	24	27	9 of 9 games with both teams in the table · 9 of 9 with home/away records · 9 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends	22	22	9 of 9 games with five recent results for both sides · 9 of 9 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios	19	19	9 of 9 games with goals broken down by period · 9 of 9 with records of games without scoring
Índice Macro	97	100	Sum of the four components

What the market says

Lille vs Lens

The market sees an even game, with Lille slightly ahead and little separating either win from the draw.

Le Havre vs PSG

The market makes PSG a strong favorite; a Le Havre win is given almost no chance.

Nice vs Rennes

The market leans slightly toward Rennes despite playing away, but Nice is close behind.

Troyes vs Le Mans

The market gives Troyes a narrow edge at home.

Strasbourg vs Auxerre

The market makes Strasbourg the home favorite despite its losing streak.

Paris FC vs Monaco

The market gives Paris FC a narrow edge at home, even with Monaco higher in the table.

How the Macro Index is computed

The Índice Macro measures, from 0 to 100, how much of the round's analysis is backed by the data received. It adds four components, weighted at 32 (data), 27 (context), 22 (trends) and 19 (scenarios). This round, data scores 32 out of 32, with all 9 games, all 18 clubs in the table and published markets for all 9 games; context scores 24 out of 27; trends, 22 out of 22; scenarios, 19 out of 19. The total is 97 out of 100.

Sources

Official source: Ligue 1

Read also

Author

Dale HansonCommunity Manager. X @InHansonWeTrust

Ligue 1, Matchday 9: PSG at Le Havre and Lille vs Lens open the weekend

Table of Contents

The round's thesis

What is at stake

This round's matches

Every match this round

Friday, October 30

Saturday, October 31

Sunday, November 1

The round

Scenarios

Ligue 1 standings before the round

Team form for each match

What the round changed for the next one

Results

Goal scenarios observed among this round's clubs

The market favorite in each game

This round's Índice Macro

What the market says

How the Macro Index is computed

Sources

Read also