Tech and science

On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

November 10

November 11

November 17

No release by November 30

November 12

November 20

November 21

November 16

November 15

November 27

November 19

November 18

November 24

November 26

November 25

November 23

November 30

November 13

November 14

November 22

November 9

November 28

November 29

November 2

November 1

November 3

On or prior to October 31

November 4

November 5

November 7

November 8

November 6

Gemini Carbon released on...?

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Gemini Carbon released on...?

November 10$89.8KVol.88%Yes87.8No12.2

November 11$32.9KVol.8%Yes8.3No91.7

November 17$5.4KVol.2%Yes2.1No98

No release by November 30$14.3KVol.2%Yes1.8No98.2

November 12$7.3KVol.<1%Yes0.75No99.3

November 20$1.6KVol.<1%Yes0.7No99.3

November 21$3KVol.<1%Yes0.55No99.5

November 16$1.7KVol.<1%Yes0.5No99.5

November 15$2.9KVol.<1%Yes0.4No99.6

November 27$2.2KVol.<1%Yes0.35No99.7

November 19$1.4KVol.<1%Yes0.3No99.7

November 18$2.6KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

November 24$1.7KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

November 26$2KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

November 25$2KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

November 23$1.8KVol.<1%Yes0.2No99.8

November 30$1.9KVol.<1%Yes0.2No99.8

November 13$6.6KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

November 14$6KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

November 22$1.1KVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

November 9$15.5KVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

November 28$930.9Vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

November 29$654.3Vol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Market details

Timeline & payout