Geopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

November 9

November 8

November 10

November 25

November 15

November 11

November 28

November 30

November 21

November 14

November 23

November 29

November 27

November 24

November 13

November 12

November 18

November 19

November 16

November 20

November 17

November 26

November 22

November 7

November 6

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

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Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

November 9$6.1KVol.99%Yes99.1No0.95

November 8$13KVol.96%Yes95.9No4.1

November 10$1.3KVol.86%Yes85.5No14.5

November 25$827.6Vol.81%Yes80.5No19.5

November 15$1.1KVol.79%Yes78.5No21.5

November 11$629.1Vol.77%Yes76.5No23.5

November 28$144.1Vol.76%Yes76No24

November 30$560.5Vol.75%Yes75No25

November 21$264.1Vol.75%Yes74.5No25.5

November 14$378Vol.75%Yes74.5No25.5

November 23$439.9Vol.75%Yes74.5No25.5

November 29$670.4Vol.75%Yes74.5No25.5

November 27$336.2Vol.74%Yes73.5No26.5

November 24$616.7Vol.74%Yes73.5No26.5

November 13$49Vol.74%Yes73.5No26.5

November 12$172Vol.73%Yes73No27

November 18$494.6Vol.73%Yes73No27

November 19$419.6Vol.73%Yes72.5No27.5

November 16$40Vol.72%Yes71.5No28.5

November 20$47.1Vol.71%Yes70.5No29.5

November 17$592.2Vol.70%Yes70No30

November 26$990.2Vol.69%Yes68.5No31.5

November 22$295.9Vol.46%Yes46No54

November 7$3.7KVol.3%Yes2.8No97.3

Market details

Timeline & payout