Geopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

October 27

July 20

July 24

July 31

October 31

October 24

October 30

November 1

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October 18

July 18

November 3

October 29

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July 23

August 2

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August 3

July 25

September 30

July 28

August 9

September 15

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August 4

July 26

October 9

July 27

August 15

July 30

August 1

July 29

November 5

November 7

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November 13

November 15

November 18

November 20

November 22

November 30

December 15

December 31

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 7$2MVol.100%Yes99.9No0.15

November 11$24.3KVol.99%Yes98.8No1.3

November 13$4.2KVol.98%Yes98.2No1.8

November 15$2.2MVol.97%Yes96.5No3.5

November 18$3.4KVol.94%Yes93.5No6.5

November 20$21.6KVol.93%Yes92.5No7.5

November 22$441KVol.91%Yes90.5No9.5

November 30$1.3MVol.86%Yes85.5No14.5

December 15$508.9KVol.79%Yes78.5No21.5

December 31$2.3MVol.69%Yes68.5No31.5

Market details

Timeline & payout