Tech and science

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

December 31

November 30

November 20

November 13

November 11

November 9

October 31

September 30

August 31

Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?

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Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by...?

December 31$1.6KVol.97%Yes96.7No3.3

November 30$1.9KVol.93%Yes93.2No6.9

November 20$3.7KVol.78%Yes77.5No22.5

November 13$3.5KVol.21%Yes20.5No79.5

November 11$3.1KVol.13%Yes12.5No87.5

November 9$2.6KVol.3%Yes2.5No97.5

Market details

Timeline & payout