Bundesliga: Der Klassiker between Bayern and Dortmund and the fight at the bottom
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1.The round's thesis
2.What is at stake
3.This round's matches
4.Every match this round
5.The round
6.Scenarios
7.Standings before the round
8.Both teams in each game, before the round
9.What the round changed for the next one
9.1.At the top
9.2.At the bottom
9.3.Surprises
10.Results
11.Scenarios observed among this round's clubs
12.Favourite in each game and the gap between outcomes
13.Macro Index for the round
14.What the market says
14.1.Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
14.2.Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn
14.3.Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
14.4.Augsburg vs Freiburg
14.5.Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
14.6.Union Berlin vs Cologne
15.How the Macro Index is computed
16.Sources
17.Read also
Bundesliga round 8: Der Klassiker, Bayern v Dortmund, at the top and three clubs in danger playing at home. What matters in each game.
The round's thesis
This round pits the best attack against the best defence at the top and gives the clubs at the bottom a chance to respond at home. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund come in unbeaten and level on points, and Saturday's Klassiker decides who goes clear at the top. Further down, the three clubs in the danger zone, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Union Berlin and Schalke, play at home against opponents who have yet to win away.
What is at stake
Title race: Bayern Munich and Dortmund are level on points, with Bayern ahead on goal difference. A win in Der Klassiker leaves one of them alone at the top; a draw keeps the two level. Top places: Freiburg and Leverkusen sit third and fourth on the same points, with Leipzig and Werder Bremen right behind, a point back. Freiburg come in off two straight defeats and visit Augsburg, who are unbeaten at home; Leipzig visit Schalke without ever having taken a point away. At the bottom: Mönchengladbach prop up the table, and Union Berlin, Schalke and Stuttgart have six points each. The three bottom clubs playing at home face opponents without an away win, but they also have little to show as hosts: Mönchengladbach have lost all three home games, and Schalke have yet to win at their own ground.
This round's matches
Anchor match
Bayern Munich
Saturday, October 31
Borussia Dortmund
The league's best attack meets the meanest defence: Bayern Munich have scored more goals than any club, and Borussia Dortmund have conceded fewer than anyone else. Both are unbeaten and level on points; Bayern have won all three of their home games, and Dortmund have yet to lose away. It's the game the round turns on: the winner ends up alone at the top, and a draw keeps the two level.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, October 31
Paderborn
Bottom side Borussia Mönchengladbach won their first game of the season last round, 3-2 at Stuttgart, but have lost all three at home and conceded more goals than any other team. Paderborn, 13th, have not won any of their three away games: two draws and a defeat. For Mönchengladbach, it's the chance to turn a first win into a run.
Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, October 31
Stuttgart
Leverkusen have a split record: they've won all three home games and conceded little, but have lost twice on the road, most recently 3-0 at Hoffenheim. Stuttgart, 15th, have lost four of their last five, the latest at home to bottom side Borussia Mönchengladbach. It's a game where home advantage favours the side that has already shown it knows how to use it.
Augsburg
Saturday, October 31
Freiburg
Third-placed Freiburg come in off two straight defeats, the latest at home to Bayern Munich, and visit an Augsburg side unbeaten at home: four games, one win and three draws. Augsburg haven't won in five. A Freiburg win holds on to the top place; a slip opens the door for Leipzig and Werder Bremen.
Schalke 04
Saturday, October 31
RB Leipzig
Leipzig have won all four home games and lost the three they've played away, conceding plenty; Schalke have yet to score at home and have drawn a blank in five of their seven games. Here, the league's worst attack hosts a visitor that has yet to take a point on the road. Schalke, 16th, are in the relegation play-off spot, and last round ended 0-0 at Köln.
Union Berlin
Sunday, November 1
Cologne
It's a direct relegation battle: Union Berlin are 17th and Köln 12th, two points ahead. Union have won only once in four home games, and Köln have lost all three away. The winner pulls away from the zone; the loser stays stuck in it.
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, October 30
16:30 — Elversberg vs Mainz — Elversberg thrashed Mainz 4-1 at home.
Saturday, October 31
11:30 — Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim — Werder Bremen beat Hoffenheim 2-0 at home.
11:30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn — Borussia Mönchengladbach and Paderborn played out a goalless draw.
11:30 — Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart — Stuttgart won 4-2 away at Leverkusen.
11:30 — Augsburg vs Freiburg — Freiburg won 2-1 away at Augsburg.
11:30 — Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig — Leipzig won 2-0 away at Schalke.
14:30 — Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund drew Der Klassiker 2-2.
Sunday, November 1
11:30 — Union Berlin vs Cologne — Union Berlin and Köln drew 1-1.
13:30 — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg — Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hamburg 3-1 at home.
The round
The round opens on Friday with Elversberg v Mainz, neighbours in the table: Mainz have won all three of their away games, and Elversberg have won twice at home. Saturday packs five games into the same slot, among them Leverkusen v Stuttgart, Schalke v Leipzig, Augsburg v Freiburg and Mönchengladbach v Paderborn; Werder Bremen, still unbeaten at home, host a Hoffenheim side that thrashed Leverkusen last round. After that, Der Klassiker between Bayern Munich and Dortmund has the stage to itself. On Sunday, Union Berlin host Köln in a direct clash at the bottom, and Eintracht Frankfurt host Hamburg, who have lost three of their four away games. What the round decides: who holds the top spot after Der Klassiker and whether the bottom clubs turn home advantage into points.
Scenarios
✗ Bayern Munich finish the round with more points than Borussia Dortmund. (missed) Der Klassiker ended 2-2: the two clubs remain level on points.
✗ Borussia Mönchengladbach win at home for the first time this season. (missed) Mönchengladbach drew 0-0 with Paderborn at home and have yet to win as hosts.
✓ Schalke again fail to score at home. (held) Schalke lost 2-0 to Leipzig without scoring.
✗ Leverkusen beat Stuttgart at home. (missed) Leverkusen lost 4-2 at home to Stuttgart.
✗ Union Berlin beat Köln and move past their rival in the table. (missed) Union Berlin and Köln drew 1-1, and their rival stayed ahead in the table.
Standings before the round
Pos.
Team
Points
Played
Won
Drawn
Lost
Goal difference
1
Bayern Munich
17
7
5
2
0
19
2
Borussia Dortmund
17
7
5
2
0
8
3
Freiburg
13
7
4
1
2
7
4
Bayer Leverkusen
13
7
4
1
2
4
5
RB Leipzig
12
7
4
0
3
9
6
Werder Bremen
12
7
3
3
1
1
7
Mainz
10
7
3
1
3
3
8
Elversberg
10
7
3
1
3
-3
9
Augsburg
9
7
2
3
2
4
10
Hoffenheim
9
7
3
0
4
0
11
Hamburg
9
7
3
0
4
-10
12
Cologne
8
7
2
2
3
-3
13
Paderborn
8
7
2
2
3
-3
14
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
7
2
2
3
-7
15
Stuttgart
6
7
2
0
5
-3
16
Schalke 04
6
7
1
3
3
-3
17
Union Berlin
6
7
1
3
3
-12
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
7
1
0
6
-11
Both teams in each game, before the round
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Elversberg
Mainz
8
48
-3
10
LWLDL
7
48
3
10
LWLWL
Bayer Leverkusen
Stuttgart
4
62
4
13
LWWWD
15
29
-3
6
LLWLL
Augsburg
Freiburg
9
43
4
9
DLDLD
3
62
7
13
LLWDW
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Paderborn
18
14
-11
3
WLLLL
13
38
-3
8
WDLWL
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
6
57
1
12
WDDWD
10
43
0
9
WWLLW
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
16
29
-3
6
DLLDW
5
57
9
12
WLWLW
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
1
81
19
17
WWDWW
2
81
8
17
WDDWW
Union Berlin
Cologne
17
29
-12
6
DDWLL
12
38
-3
8
DLWLD
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburg
14
38
-7
8
LWLDW
11
43
-10
9
LWWWL
What the round changed for the next one
At the top
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund drew Der Klassiker 2-2. — The two remain level at the top and neither has pulled clear: Bayern visit Mainz and Dortmund host Elversberg, each unable to let the rival get away.
Freiburg won 2-1 away at Augsburg. — The win keeps Freiburg third and takes them into their next game, at home to Union Berlin, clear of the pressure of two straight defeats.
Werder Bremen beat Hoffenheim 2-0 at home. — Werder Bremen stay in the leading pack, keeping pace with Leipzig, and now visit a Stuttgart side buoyed by their 4-2 win over Leverkusen.
With Der Klassiker drawn, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund remain level at the top, and Bayern stay ahead on goal difference. Freiburg hold on to third, with Leipzig and Werder Bremen right on their heels, and Leverkusen have dropped out of the top four. Next round, Mainz v Bayern and Dortmund v Elversberg will show whether anyone pulls clear at the top, and Stuttgart v Werder Bremen is the game with the biggest bearing on the race for the top places.
At the bottom
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Paderborn played out a goalless draw. — The home draw earns Mönchengladbach their first point as hosts, but they stay bottom and visit Hamburg on Friday needing to take points on the road.
Union Berlin and Köln drew 1-1. — The draw leaves Union Berlin in the relegation play-off spot, and the trip to third-placed Freiburg is a tough game to climb out of it; Köln host Leverkusen.
Leipzig won 2-0 away at Schalke. — The defeat pushes Schalke down to second-bottom, in the relegation zone, and the game at Hoffenheim, who are coming off a defeat, is a chance to respond.
Mönchengladbach, Union Berlin and Schalke failed to win and remain in the bottom three, with Schalke dropping into the relegation zone and Union staying in the play-off spot. The bottom hasn't opened up: Köln, Paderborn and Hamburg, just above, have the same points, which is why Hamburg v Mönchengladbach and Freiburg v Union Berlin carry more weight next round. Schalke's trip to Hoffenheim is a game against a side that also lost this round.
Surprises
Elversberg thrashed Mainz 4-1 at home. — The rout lifts Elversberg above Mainz in the table and makes the trip to Dortmund the test of whether they can hold the position.
Stuttgart won 4-2 away at Leverkusen. — The home defeat knocks Leverkusen out of the top four and sends them to Köln already under pressure; Stuttgart get a lift before hosting Werder Bremen.
Two results the market didn't expect shook up the table: Elversberg, whom the market had behind Mainz, ran riot and moved past their rival, and Stuttgart, away underdogs, beat Leverkusen and knocked them out of the top group. Next round, Elversberg go to Dortmund and Stuttgart host Werder Bremen, two games in which the market will have to rethink what these teams are.
Results
Elversberg thrashed Mainz 4-1 at home.
Werder Bremen beat Hoffenheim 2-0 at home.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Paderborn played out a goalless draw.
Stuttgart won 4-2 away at Leverkusen.
Freiburg won 2-1 away at Augsburg.
Leipzig won 2-0 away at Schalke.
Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund drew Der Klassiker 2-2.
Union Berlin and Köln drew 1-1.
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hamburg 3-1 at home.
Scenarios observed among this round's clubs
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than in the other
62
First goal before 30 minutes
27
One of the teams fails to score
25
Favourite in each game and the gap between outcomes
Home
Away
Favourite
Favourite (%)
Gap to least likely (pp)
Conviction (0-100)
Balance
Elversberg
Mainz
Mainz
46
21
19
Medium
Bayer Leverkusen
Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
52
31
28
Low
Augsburg
Freiburg
Freiburg
44
19
16
Medium
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Paderborn
Borussia Mönchengladbach
49
24
24
Medium
Werder Bremen
Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim
42
18
13
Medium
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
52
28
28
Medium
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern Munich
72
60
58
Low
Union Berlin
Cologne
Union Berlin
38
11
7
High
Eintracht Frankfurt
Hamburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
58
38
37
Low
Macro Index for the round
Component
Value
Maximum
Where it came from
Data
32
32
9 of 9 games in the round · 18 clubs in the competition table · 18 clubs with season statistics · 9 of 9 games with a published market
Context
24
27
9 of 9 games with both teams in the table · 9 of 9 with home and away record · 9 clubs in a qualification or relegation zone
Trends
22
22
9 of 9 games with five recent results for both sides · 9 of 9 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
9 of 9 games with goal distribution by period · 9 of 9 with a record of games without scoring
Macro Index
97
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
The market sees Bayern as clear favourites, more than the level points suggest, and gives the draw and Dortmund much smaller shares.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn
The market has Mönchengladbach in front despite their home record; Paderborn come second, with the draw close behind.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
The market sees Leverkusen as favourites, in line with their home form, and leaves little room for the draw.
Augsburg vs Freiburg
The market favours Freiburg, but narrowly: Augsburg at home and the draw both carry weight.
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
The market prefers Leipzig despite their three away defeats; what counts against Schalke is an attack that hasn't scored at home.
Union Berlin vs Cologne
The market sees an even game, with Union slightly ahead and the draw weighing more than in any other game this round.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Macro Index measures, from 0 to 100, how much of the analysis rests on data that has come in. It adds up four parts, weighted data 32, context 27, trends 22 and scenarios 19, and each part is the coverage of fixtures, table and team statistics. This round, data scores 32 of 32, context 24 of 27, trends 22 of 22 and scenarios 19 of 19, for a total of 97 of 100. Context falls short of the maximum because only some of the clubs are in a qualification or relegation zone.