Bundesliga: a round decided at the bottom of the table
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Round 9: Hamburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach open the relegation fight; Bayern and Dortmund remain neck and neck.
The round's thesis
This round is best read from the bottom of the table: the bottom four all play, and Friday opens with Hamburg, still outside the drop zone, against Borussia Mönchengladbach, who prop up the table. At the top, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are level on points, with the league's best attack and best defence, and neither faces an opponent of their own standing.
What is at stake
In the title race, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are level on points, and only goal difference puts Bayern ahead; Bayern visit a Mainz side yet to win at home, and Dortmund host Elversberg. If both win, the order stays the same; if either slips up, the other goes clear at the top.
In the Champions League race, Freiburg sit one point ahead of RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen, who are level on points, and only goal difference puts Leipzig in the spot. Leipzig host Augsburg and Bremen visit Stuttgart, so the fourth spot could change hands as early as Saturday.
At the bottom, Hamburg, Union Berlin, Schalke 04 and Borussia Mönchengladbach occupy the last four places and all of them play: Union visit Freiburg, Schalke visit Hoffenheim, and Friday opens with Hamburg against Mönchengladbach. Whoever wins closes the gap on the club above; whoever loses sees the club below draw closer.
This round's matches
Anchor match
Hamburg
Friday, November 6
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburg have won two of their three home games but have one of the league's worst defences; Borussia Mönchengladbach have the worst of all and have won only one game away from home. It's the game of the round because it opens Friday and puts the bottom side up against a rival still above them in the table: the winner comes away with the bottom of the standings redrawn, and both arrive with plenty of absentees.
Mainz
Saturday, November 7
Bayern Munich
Mainz have yet to win at home, and Bayern Munich have the league's best attack and remain unbeaten, with two wins and two draws away from home. The game shows whether the goal-difference leaders can turn the hosts' fragility into an edge over Borussia Dortmund.
Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, November 7
Elversberg
Borussia Dortmund have the league's tightest defence and are still unbeaten; at home they've won three of four games and drawn the other. Elversberg are seventh, but away from home they've won only once and conceded twice as many goals as they've scored.
RB Leipzig
Saturday, November 7
Augsburg
RB Leipzig have won all four home games and haven't conceded as hosts. Augsburg haven't finished a game without scoring this season, and it's that attack that tests Leipzig's home defence.
Freiburg
Sunday, November 8
Union Berlin
Freiburg are third and have won three of their four home games. Union Berlin have drawn half their games and scored a single goal away from home, which makes this one of the toughest trips of the round for anyone fighting relegation.
Hoffenheim
Sunday, November 8
Schalke 04
Schalke 04 have scored the fewest goals in the league and have yet to score at home; away, they've won once. Hoffenheim have lost more games than they've won, but they're at home. A Schalke win puts them level on points with Hoffenheim, and that's what gives the game its weight.
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, November 6
16:30 — Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Hamburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at home in the round's opener.
Saturday, November 7
11:30 — Mainz vs Bayern Munich — Bayern Munich beat Mainz 2-1 away from home.
11:30 — Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg — Borussia Dortmund beat Elversberg 2-1 at home.
11:30 — RB Leipzig vs Augsburg — RB Leipzig thrashed Augsburg 5-2 at home.
11:30 — Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Paderborn and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2-2.
14:30 — Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen — Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at home.
Sunday, November 8
11:30 — Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bayer Leverkusen beat Köln 2-1 away from home.
13:30 — Freiburg vs Union Berlin — Freiburg beat Union Berlin 2-0 at home.
15:30 — Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 — Hoffenheim beat Schalke 04 2-1 at home.
The round
Friday has a single game, and it's a bottom-of-the-table one: Hamburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach open the round. Saturday packs in five games, and that's where the top of the table moves: Bayern Munich at Mainz, Borussia Dortmund at home to Elversberg, RB Leipzig at home to Augsburg and, in the afternoon, Stuttgart host a Werder Bremen side chasing a European spot that haven't found away wins easy to come by. Sunday closes the round with three games, two of them with a bottom-of-the-table club as the visitor, Freiburg vs Union Berlin and Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04, plus Köln, still unbeaten at home, hosting Bayer Leverkusen. What the round decides is whether the bottom of the table bunches up or Borussia Mönchengladbach and Schalke 04 stay stuck in the last places.
Absences
The opener arrives with long injury lists on both sides. Hamburg are without Nadir, Remberg, Vieira and Vuskovic, and Capaldo and Poulsen are doubts. Borussia Mönchengladbach are without Bolin, Kuhn, Leopold and Leszczynski, and Diks, Fleck, Honorat, Kleindienst and Nicolas are doubts.
Scenarios
✓ Borussia Mönchengladbach leave the round still in last place. (held) Borussia Mönchengladbach lost 3-1 at Hamburg and finished the round on 4 points, in last place.
✓ Bayern Munich win at Mainz and end the round top. (held) Bayern Munich beat Mainz 2-1 and reached 21 points, ahead of Dortmund, also on 21, on goal difference.
✗ Schalke 04 fail to score against Hoffenheim. (missed) Schalke 04 scored once but lost 2-1 to Hoffenheim.
✗ RB Leipzig win at home against Augsburg without conceding. (missed) RB Leipzig beat Augsburg 5-2 but conceded twice.
Bundesliga table before the round
Pos.
Team
Played
Points
Goal diff.
1
Bayern Munich
8
18
19
2
Borussia Dortmund
8
18
8
3
Freiburg
8
16
8
4
RB Leipzig
8
15
11
5
Werder Bremen
8
15
3
6
Bayer Leverkusen
8
13
2
7
Elversberg
8
13
0
8
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
11
-5
9
Mainz
8
10
0
10
Augsburg
8
9
3
11
Stuttgart
8
9
-1
12
Hoffenheim
8
9
-2
13
Cologne
8
9
-3
14
Paderborn
8
9
-3
15
Hamburg
8
9
-12
16
Union Berlin
8
7
-12
17
Schalke 04
8
6
-5
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
8
4
-11
Team performance in each game
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points % (home)
Goal diff. (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points % (away)
Goal diff. (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Hamburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach
15
38
-12
9
LLWWW
18
17
-11
4
DWLLL
Borussia Dortmund
Elversberg
2
75
8
18
DWDDW
7
54
0
13
WLWLD
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
4
62
11
15
WWLWL
10
38
3
9
LDLDL
Mainz
Bayern Munich
9
42
0
10
LLWLW
1
75
19
18
DWWDW
Paderborn
Eintracht Frankfurt
14
38
-3
9
DWDLW
8
46
-5
11
WLWLD
Stuttgart
Werder Bremen
11
38
-1
9
WLLWL
5
62
3
15
WWDDW
Cologne
Bayer Leverkusen
13
38
-3
9
DDLWL
6
54
2
13
LLWWW
Freiburg
Union Berlin
3
67
8
16
WLLWD
16
29
-12
7
DDDWL
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04
12
38
-2
9
LWWLL
17
25
-5
6
LDLLD
What the round changed for the next one
At the top
Bayern Munich beat Mainz 2-1 away from home. — Winning at Mainz kept Bayern top, on 21 points, and means Dortmund have to keep winning so as not to lose ground on goal difference.
Borussia Dortmund beat Elversberg 2-1 at home. — Dortmund also reached 21 points and remain right on Bayern's heels; the title race is still being decided on goal difference.
RB Leipzig thrashed Augsburg 5-2 at home. — Leipzig scored five and moved to 18 points, one behind Freiburg on 19, but conceded two and still have to prove the defence can hold up.
At the top, the order didn't change: Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund both won and remain level on 21 points, with Bayern ahead on goal difference. Next round, any slip from either of them hands the other sole possession of first. Leipzig used the rout to close in on Freiburg in the race for a Champions League spot.
At the bottom
Hamburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at home in the round's opener. — Hamburg moved to 12 points and opened up a gap on the bottom; Borussia Mönchengladbach, on 4, are further cut adrift at the bottom and need a win soon.
Freiburg beat Union Berlin 2-0 at home. — Leaving Freiburg empty-handed, Union Berlin stayed on 7 points and remain in the relegation zone.
Hoffenheim beat Schalke 04 2-1 at home. — Schalke 04, on 6 points, lost at Hoffenheim and head into the next round under pressure to take points off the teams above them.
The relegation fight lost a contender: Hamburg won the opener and moved out of the danger zone, while Borussia Mönchengladbach, Schalke 04 and Union Berlin lost and remain in the bottom places, on 4, 6 and 7 points. Next round, the trio need to pick up points so as not to watch Hamburg and the mid-table clubs pull away for good.
Results
Hamburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at home in the round's opener.
Bayern Munich beat Mainz 2-1 away from home.
Borussia Dortmund beat Elversberg 2-1 at home.
RB Leipzig thrashed Augsburg 5-2 at home.
Paderborn and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 2-2.
Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at home.
Bayer Leverkusen beat Köln 2-1 away from home.
Freiburg beat Union Berlin 2-0 at home.
Hoffenheim beat Schalke 04 2-1 at home.
Goal scenarios observed for this round's teams
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first
62
Opening goal before the 30th minute
28
One of the teams fails to score
25
Índice Macro for the round
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
26
32
9 of 9 games in the round · 18 clubs in the competition table · 18 clubs with season stats · 0 of 9 games with a published market
Context
24
27
9 of 9 games with both teams in the table · 9 of 9 with home/away record · 9 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends
22
22
9 of 9 games with five recent results for both sides · 9 of 9 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
9 of 9 games with goal distribution by period · 9 of 9 with a record of games without scoring
Índice Macro
91
100
Sum of the four components
How the Macro Index is computed
The Índice Macro measures how much of the analysis rests on data that has come in. It adds up four parts: data, up to 32 points; context, up to 27; trends, up to 22; and scenarios, up to 19. This round, data scores 26, context 24, trends 22 and scenarios 19, for a total of 91 out of 100. Data fell short of the maximum because none of the nine games has a published market; the other three parts have full coverage of the round.
Hamburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Mainz
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Elversberg
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Freiburg
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04
