logo

Champions League: the third round of the league phase

Champions League: the third round of the league phase
176

League phase matchday 3, already under way: who pulls clear of the danger zone, who holds on to an automatic spot and what the market sees.

The round's thesis

Matchday 3 of the league phase separates those who have already built a lead from those who have yet to get a point. PSG and Barcelona, the leaders with perfect records, meet on Tuesday, and on Wednesday Bayern Munich and Arsenal decide who comes out stronger in the race for an automatic round-of-16 spot; at the other end, Inter Milan, Napoli, Lille and Galatasaray are still without a point and need to start picking some up.

What is at stake

First, the automatic spot in the round of 16: PSG, Barcelona, Aston Villa and Stuttgart sit at the top of the table, with Arsenal and Liverpool right behind, so a slip from anyone up there opens the door for the chasers, such as Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. Second, the play-offs, which are tight in mid-table: Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and AEK Athens, all with a win and a loss, are fighting for position with Como and Manchester United, and a win here is worth more than goal difference. Finally, the bottom of the table: Inter Milan, Napoli, Porto, Lille and Galatasaray have yet to get a point, and a third matchday without points leaves the play-offs a winning streak away.

This round's matches

Anchor matchBayern de Munique vs ArsenalWednesday, October 21, 16:00

Arsenal arrive with a defense yet to concede and both wins in hand; Bayern Munich won their opener 5-0, drew 3-3 with Viking on matchday 2 and play at home looking to get back to winning. Both are short-handed: Musiala is out and Olise suspended for Bayern, and Saliba, the center-back, is out for Arsenal, which tests precisely the defense that underpins Arsenal's campaign.

Lille vs GalatasarayWednesday, October 21, 13:45

Lille and Galatasaray have yet to get a point and sit at the bottom of the table, and both concede a lot of goals. The loser reaches matchday 4 needing a win to avoid falling further away from the play-offs. Galatasaray are without Leão, and Lille have injuries and one suspension.

Betis vs FeyenoordWednesday, October 21, 16:00

Real Betis won both matches, home and away, and are inside the play-off zone; Feyenoord have conceded plenty away from home and come in off a home win and an away defeat. The Dutch side have several players in doubt, which adds weight to Betis's home advantage.

Inter de Milão vs Shakhtar DonetskWednesday, October 21, 16:00

Inter Milan are without a point and conceded in both games, and host a bounce-back match against a Shakhtar side that has yet to lose. Inter's defense is missing Pavard and Stones, and that is where the match will be decided: Shakhtar have the steadier record, but also arrive with a long list of absentees.

Real Madrid vs RB LeipzigWednesday, October 21, 16:00

Real Madrid won both of their matches, home and away, and host a Leipzig side that has only won at their own ground and struggled badly on the road. Rodrygo and Asencio are out for the Spanish side, and Leipzig also arrive with Guiu and Ouedraogo out.

Sporting CP vs LASKWednesday, October 21, 16:00

Sporting won both matches and conceded just one goal, and host a LASK side without a point that has conceded in both games. Sporting are missing Santos and Zalazar, but LASK also arrive with absences and are the team that most needs the result.

Every match this round

All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).

Tuesday, October 20

  • 13:45 — Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praga — Fenerbahçe and Slavia Prague drew 2-2.
  • 13:45 — Sabah vs Borussia Dortmund — Borussia Dortmund won 2-1 away at Sabah.
  • 16:00 — Roma vs Slovan Bratislava — Roma thrashed Slovan Bratislava 4-0 at home.
  • 16:00 — Porto vs PSV — PSV won 1-0 away at Porto, and Porto are still without a point.
  • 16:00 — Liverpool vs Villarreal — Liverpool beat Villarreal 4-3 in a seven-goal game.
  • 16:00 — Manchester City vs AEK Atenas — Manchester City thrashed AEK Athens 5-1 at home.
  • 16:00 — Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt — Napoli beat Bodø/Glimt 4-3 to pick up their first points.
  • 16:00 — PSG vs Barcelona — PSG beat Barcelona 4-2 in the clash of the leaders.
  • 16:00 — Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid — Stuttgart and Atlético Madrid drew 1-1.

Wednesday, October 21

  • 13:45 — Como vs Manchester United — Como beat Manchester United 4-1 at home.
  • 13:45 — Lille vs Galatasaray — Galatasaray won 4-2 away at Lille, and Lille are still without a point.
  • 16:00 — Aston Villa vs Viking — Aston Villa beat Viking 3-1 at home.
  • 16:00 — Bayern de Munique vs Arsenal — Bayern Munich and Arsenal drew 2-2, and Arsenal conceded.
  • 16:00 — Betis vs Feyenoord — Real Betis beat Feyenoord 1-0 at home.
  • 16:00 — Club Brugge vs Lens — Club Brugge beat Lens 3-0 at home.
  • 16:00 — Inter de Milão vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Inter Milan beat Shakhtar 1-0 at home.
  • 16:00 — Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig — Real Madrid beat Leipzig 4-1 at home.
  • 16:00 — Sporting CP vs LASK — LASK beat Sporting 3-2 in Lisbon to pick up their first points.

The first block

Tuesday sets up the matchday. The game everyone is watching is PSG against Barcelona, leaders with perfect records and the same goal difference, and whoever comes out of it ahead starts setting the pace in the race for top spot. At the same time, Liverpool, Stuttgart and Manchester City play at home against opponents who have been inconsistent, and Napoli and Porto, without a point, get their first chance to respond. Roma, in the lower half, host bottom side Slovan Bratislava. What Tuesday decides is who reaches Wednesday having made a statement: if the teams at the top deliver, Wednesday becomes a chase behind them; if they slip, the automatic spots open up.

The second block

Wednesday answers whatever Tuesday leaves behind. Bayern Munich and Arsenal play the match with the biggest bearing on the automatic spots, a clash in which Arsenal's defense, the only one yet to concede, faces a Bayern side coming off a draw. Real Madrid and Real Betis play at home against opponents who have struggled away, which gives home advantage extra weight. And at the bottom of the table, Inter Milan, Lille and Galatasaray play matches where a slip deepens the crisis and a win changes the read on the league phase. Taken as a whole, the matchday measures whether the gap between the top and the bottom is growing or closing.

Round news

No news confirmed with a saved source as of this page's close; the read on the matchday is based on the table, the stats and the absence list.

Absences

In Bayern Munich's match, Musiala is out and Olise is serving a red-card suspension; for Arsenal, Saliba is also out. At Real Madrid, Rodrygo and Asencio will not play; at Leipzig, Guiu and Ouedraogo are out. Inter Milan are without Pavard and Stones, and Shakhtar have a long list of absentees. Galatasaray cannot count on Leão, and Lille have one player suspended and several injured. At Sporting, Santos and Zalazar are out. At Aston Villa, Onana and Ruggeri are out, and Viking have several injuries. At Como and Manchester United, the treatment room is still full, with Sesko, Dorgu and Ugarte among United's absentees.

What the first block changed

Tuesday set the tone for Wednesday. PSG beat Barcelona 4-2 and Napoli beat Bodø/Glimt 4-3, while Porto lost to PSV and Stuttgart drew 1-1 with Atlético Madrid. The teams that took the field on Wednesday, such as Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Lille, already knew the leaders' clash had ended in a PSG win and that Porto were still without a point.

After the round

The pre-matchday read held up at the top and missed on the details. PSG lived up to their status as leaders and beat Barcelona 4-2 in the head-to-head, after opening the scoring in the first half. Real Madrid, Real Betis, Manchester City and Liverpool also won at home, which reinforces the weight of home advantage this matchday. In the anchor match, Bayern Munich held Arsenal 2-2: Bayern did not lose at home, but Arsenal are no longer the defense that had yet to concede.

What did not hold up was the order at the bottom of the table. Napoli beat Bodø/Glimt 4-3, Inter Milan beat Shakhtar and Galatasaray won against Lille, so three of the clubs that came in without points responded; Lille and Porto lost and are still without a point. Sporting, coming off two wins, lost at home to LASK, who also had no points. Matchday 4 starts on November 3 and finds the league phase more scrambled in the middle and at the bottom than the earlier thesis predicted.

Scenarios

  • ✓ This matchday's clubs score more goals in the second half than in the first, as has been the trend this season. (held) Across the matchday's games, more goals came after the break than before it: several matches were decided in the second half.
  • ✓ At least one match on the matchday ends with one of the teams failing to score. (held) Roma thrashed Slovan Bratislava 4-0, and Betis, Brugge, Inter Milan and PSV also won without conceding.
  • ✗ Arsenal leave Munich without conceding and take their clean defensive record into matchday 4. (missed) Arsenal conceded twice in Munich, in the 2-2 with Bayern Munich, and reach matchday 4 without their clean defensive record.

League phase: standings before matchday 3

Both teams in each match: position, points percentage, goal difference, points and recent results

Results

Scenarios seen across this matchday's clubs: frequency, not prediction

The favorite and the market gap, in matches with market data read by the script

Índice Macro for the matchday

What the market says

How the Macro Index is computed

Sources

Read also

Author
Dale Hanson
Dale HansonCommunity Manager. X @InHansonWeTrust
Categories