La Liga, round 11: a tight title race between Barcelona, Atlético and Real Madrid

261views

La Liga's round 11, from Friday to Monday: the tight title race, the Champions League place and the relegation fight, game by game.

The round's thesis

The title race is tight between Barcelona, Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid, and all three play this round. Barcelona leads, but Atlético and Real Madrid are in good form and play away: this round could extend the leader's advantage or shake up the top of the table.

What is at stake

Title race: Barcelona leads, with Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid just behind. If the leader slips up against Alavés on Saturday, things tighten up at the top; if it wins, it extends its lead before Real Madrid plays on Sunday.

Champions League place: Betis is fourth, with Real Sociedad one point behind. Betis hosts the bottom side, while Real Sociedad visits Athletic Club.

Relegation: Málaga, Valencia and Espanyol occupy the drop zone, with Getafe and Rayo Vallecano just above, a few points away. Espanyol visits Villarreal on Friday, Málaga visits Betis on Saturday and Valencia travels to Elche on Sunday, when Getafe hosts Sevilla.

This round's matches

Anchor match

Barcelona

Saturday, October 31

Alavés

Barcelona leads, plays at home and has lost just once all season, in front of its own fans. Alavés is seventh, is winless in five games and has yet to win away. This is Saturday's final game: Atlético de Madrid will already have played and Real Madrid will still be waiting to play, so the leader knows what it needs to do.

Levante

Saturday, October 31

Atlético Madrid

Atlético de Madrid is second, has won its last five games, and only Celta de Vigo has conceded fewer goals in the league. At home, Levante has conceded more goals than it has scored. Atlético opens Saturday's action: its result is the first indication of how the top of the table will look at the end of the round.

Betis

Saturday, October 31

Málaga

Betis is fourth, has won four of its five home games and is competing for the last Champions League place with Real Sociedad, one point behind. Málaga is bottom, the only team in the league without a win this season, and has not won away either.

Racing Santander

Sunday, November 1

Real Madrid

Racing Santander is unbeaten at home this season but has conceded the most goals in the league. Real Madrid is third, has won four of its last five games and suffered both of its defeats away. It plays on Sunday, after seeing Atlético de Madrid's and Barcelona's results.

Elche

Sunday, November 1

Valencia

Elche has yet to win at home this season, while second-bottom Valencia has just one league win. This is the round's most consequential game at the bottom: Elche is two points above Espanyol, the highest team in the relegation zone, and a defeat would pull it into the fight.

Athletic Bilbao

Sunday, November 1

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad is fifth, holds the Europa League place, has won four of its last five games and is one point behind fourth-placed Betis. Athletic Club, eighth, is much further down the table but plays at home, where it has lost just once. The winner gains ground in the race for European places.

Every match this round

All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).

Friday, October 30

17:00 — Villarreal vs Espanyol — Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol: Espanyol won away in the round's opener.

Saturday, October 31

10:00 — Levante vs Atlético Madrid — Levante 0–2 Atlético de Madrid: Atlético won away and kept its winning streak going.
12:15 — Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo — Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Celta de Vigo: Rayo won at home.
14:30 — Betis vs Málaga — Betis 2–1 Málaga: Betis won at home and Málaga remained winless.
17:00 — Barcelona vs Alavés — Barcelona 6–1 Alavés: Barcelona won big at home and stayed top.

Sunday, November 1

10:00 — Getafe vs Sevilla — Getafe 3–1 Sevilla: Getafe won at home.
12:15 — Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid: Real Madrid won away.
14:30 — Elche vs Valencia — Elche 0–1 Valencia: Valencia won away.
17:00 — Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad — Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad: Athletic won at home.

Monday, November 2

17:00 — Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna — Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 Osasuna: Deportivo won at home.

The round

The round opens on Friday, with relegation-zone Espanyol visiting Villarreal. On Saturday, Atlético de Madrid starts the day away at Levante, Betis hosts Málaga and Barcelona closes the day against Alavés, so the leader plays knowing Atlético's result. On Sunday, Real Madrid visits Racing Santander after seeing both rivals play, Valencia tries to climb away from the bottom at Elche, and Athletic Club faces Real Sociedad for ground in the race for European places. The round ends on Monday with Deportivo La Coruña and Osasuna, two mid-table teams.

Scenarios

✓ Barcelona remains top of La Liga at the end of the round. (held) Barcelona thrashed Alavés 6 to 1 and finished the round top, ahead of Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid, which also won.
✓ Betis remains in the top four at the end of the round. (held) Betis beat Málaga 2 to 1 and finished the round fourth, with Real Sociedad, which lost to Athletic Club, just behind.
✓ Málaga ends the round still winless this season. (held) Málaga lost 2 to 1 to Betis and remains winless this season, with 5 points and bottom place in the table.
✓ Real Madrid beats Racing Santander away. (held) Real Madrid beat Racing Santander 3 to 0 away and finished the round third.

La Liga standings before the round

Pos.	Team	Points	Played	Wins	Draws	Losses	GD
1	Barcelona	27	10	9	0	1	29
2	Atlético Madrid	25	10	8	1	1	12
3	Real Madrid	24	10	8	0	2	15
4	Betis	20	10	6	2	2	2
5	Real Sociedad	19	10	6	1	3	1
6	Sevilla	17	10	5	2	3	0
7	Alavés	12	10	3	3	4	3
8	Athletic Bilbao	12	9	3	3	3	3
9	Celta de Vigo	12	10	2	6	2	3
10	Villarreal	12	10	3	3	4	1
11	Deportivo La Coruña	11	10	2	5	3	0
12	Osasuna	11	10	3	2	5	-10
13	Racing Santander	11	10	3	2	5	-11
14	Levante	10	10	2	4	4	-3
15	Elche	10	10	2	4	4	-3
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	9	2	3	4	-8
17	Getafe	9	10	2	3	5	-10
18	Espanyol	8	10	2	2	6	-2
19	Valencia	6	10	1	3	6	-10
20	Málaga	5	10	0	5	5	-12

Performance of both teams in each game

Home	Away	Pos. (home)	Points won % (home)	GD (home)	Points (home)	Last 5 (home)	Pos. (away)	Points won % (away)	GD (away)	Points (away)	Last 5 (away)
Villarreal	Espanyol	10	40	1	12	WDLWW	18	27	-2	8	LLDLL
Levante	Atlético Madrid	14	33	-3	10	LWDDL	2	83	12	25	WWWWW
Rayo Vallecano	Celta de Vigo	16	33	-8	9	LDDW	9	40	3	12	DWDWD
Betis	Málaga	4	67	2	20	DLWDW	20	17	-12	5	DLDLL
Barcelona	Alavés	1	90	29	27	LWWWW	7	40	3	12	DLLDL
Getafe	Sevilla	17	30	-10	9	LDLWL	6	57	0	17	WLDLW
Racing Santander	Real Madrid	13	37	-11	11	WLDLL	3	80	15	24	WWWLW
Elche	Valencia	15	33	-3	10	WDDWL	19	20	-10	6	LDDLW
Athletic Bilbao	Real Sociedad	8	44	3	12	WLDD	5	63	1	19	WWWWL
Deportivo La Coruña	Osasuna	11	37	0	11	LDLDL	12	37	-10	11	LWLDL

What the round changed for the next one

At the top

Barcelona 6–1 Alavés: Barcelona won big at home and stayed top. — Barcelona remains top and heads into Sunday's head-to-head with Atlético de Madrid holding the lead.
Levante 0–2 Atlético de Madrid: Atlético won away and kept its winning streak going. — Atlético won away, keeps its winning streak going and hosts Barcelona on Sunday.
Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid: Real Madrid won away. — Real Madrid remains close behind the top two and visits Valencia on Saturday, before watching Atlético face Barcelona.

None of the top three slipped up: Barcelona won big, Atlético de Madrid won away and Real Madrid beat Racing Santander, so the top remains tight and in the same order. That makes Atlético de Madrid v Barcelona on Sunday the most consequential game next round, while Valencia v Real Madrid on Saturday gives the third-placed side a chance to apply pressure before that match.

At the bottom

Betis 2–1 Málaga: Betis won at home and Málaga remained winless. — Málaga remains winless and bottom; the home game against Racing Santander is its best chance to get a first win.
Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 Osasuna: Deportivo won at home. — Osasuna lost and remains close to the relegation zone before hosting Athletic Club, which is coming off a win.

Málaga remains bottom and winless, while Valencia and Levante stay in the relegation zone, with Elche just above. Málaga v Racing Santander and Celta de Vigo v Levante are the key games next round, while Osasuna, which lost to Deportivo La Coruña, needs a response against Athletic Club to avoid being dragged into the fight.

Surprises

Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol: Espanyol won away in the round's opener. — Espanyol left the relegation zone and hosts Deportivo La Coruña with confidence from the away win.
Getafe 3–1 Sevilla: Getafe won at home. — Sevilla missed the chance to close in on the European places and opens the round at home against Alavés, which is coming off a heavy defeat.
Elche 0–1 Valencia: Valencia won away. — Valencia gained some breathing room in the drop zone and hosts Real Madrid; Elche lost at home and hosts Betis needing a response.

No one expected Espanyol's win at Villarreal, Getafe's over Sevilla or Valencia's at Elche, and the three results tightened things up at the bottom: Espanyol and Getafe moved away from the drop zone, while Elche and Levante stayed close to it and Valencia remains in it. Next round, Elche v Betis and Celta de Vigo v Levante take on greater importance in the relegation fight, and Sevilla needs a response in Friday's opener.

Results

Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol: Espanyol won away in the round's opener.
Levante 0–2 Atlético de Madrid: Atlético won away and kept its winning streak going.
Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Celta de Vigo: Rayo won at home.
Betis 2–1 Málaga: Betis won at home and Málaga remained winless.
Barcelona 6–1 Alavés: Barcelona won big at home and stayed top.
Getafe 3–1 Sevilla: Getafe won at home.
Racing Santander 0–3 Real Madrid: Real Madrid won away.
Elche 0–1 Valencia: Valencia won away.
Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad: Athletic won at home.
Deportivo La Coruña 2–1 Osasuna: Deportivo won at home.

Scenarios observed among this round's teams

Scenario	Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first	57
Opening goal before 30 minutes	27
One team fails to score	25

The market favorite in each game

Home	Away	Favorite	Favorite (%)	Gap to least likely outcome (p.p.)	Confidence (0-100)	Balance
Villarreal	Espanyol	Villarreal	68	54	52	Low
Levante	Atlético Madrid	Atlético Madrid	60	42	40	Low
Rayo Vallecano	Celta de Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	40	11	10	High
Betis	Málaga	Betis	72	60	58	Low
Barcelona	Alavés	Barcelona	88	85	82	Low
Getafe	Sevilla	Sevilla	38	8	7	High
Racing Santander	Real Madrid	Real Madrid	80	69	70	Low
Elche	Valencia	Elche	40	12	10	High
Athletic Bilbao	Real Sociedad	Athletic Bilbao	46	19	19	Medium
Deportivo La Coruña	Osasuna	Deportivo La Coruña	44	18	16	Medium

Macro Index for the round

Component	Value	Maximum	Source
Data	32	32	10 of 10 games in the round · 20 clubs in the competition standings · 20 clubs with season statistics · 10 of 10 games with a published market
Context	23	27	10 of 10 games with both teams in the standings · 10 of 10 with home/away records · 9 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends	22	22	10 of 10 games with five recent results for both teams · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios	19	19	10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with a history of games without scoring
Macro Index	96	100	Sum of the four components

How the Macro Index is computed

The Macro Index measures how much of the analysis is supported by the data received, from 0 to 100, across four components: data, context, trends and scenarios, weighted at 32, 27, 22 and 19. This round, data scored 32 out of 32, with every game covered, all clubs included in the standings and statistics, and a published market for every game; context scored 23 out of 27, trends 22 out of 22 and scenarios 19 out of 19, for a total of 96 out of 100.

Sources

Official source: La Liga

Read also

Author

Dale HansonCommunity Manager. X @InHansonWeTrust