La Liga, Matchday 12: Atlético de Madrid vs Barcelona closes out the weekend
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La Liga Matchday 12: Atlético de Madrid and Barcelona on Sunday, Real Madrid at Valencia and Málaga still chasing a first win.
The round's thesis
The round will be decided in two places. At the top, Atlético de Madrid host Barcelona on Sunday in the last game of the round, a day after third-placed Real Madrid play in Valencia. At the bottom, Málaga, still without a win, host Racing Santander, also on Saturday.
What is at stake
Title: Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid are first and second, and they meet head to head. A win for either opens a gap on the other; a draw benefits Real Madrid, in third, who will already have played Valencia.
Champions League: Betis, in fourth, visit Elche on Sunday and have the most to lose from a slip, since they hold the last spot. Real Sociedad, fifth, host Rayo Vallecano, and Sevilla, sixth, open the round on Friday against Alavés.
Relegation: Málaga are bottom and host Racing Santander, 16th. Elche, 17th, and Levante, 18th, have 10 points each. Levante visit Celta de Vigo on Sunday and Valencia, 19th, host Real Madrid on Saturday.
This round's matches
Anchor match
Atlético Madrid
Sunday, November 8
Barcelona
It's the only game of the round between the top two, and the last to be played. Atlético de Madrid come in on five straight wins, have lost just once this season and have conceded three goals in five home games. Barcelona lead the table and have won all five of their away games, scoring 22 and conceding 5. That's why this game is the anchor: the best away attack meets a defence that gives almost nothing away at home, and Real Madrid play first, so both sides go in knowing what their direct rival has done.
Sevilla
Friday, November 6
Alavés
Sevilla open the round on Friday sitting sixth, in the Conference League spot, but they lost their last game and come in without Marcao and Peque, both injured, and Bueno, suspended after a red card. Alavés, 11th, are winless in five away games and have conceded 11 goals on the road, which backs the home side as favourites.
Málaga
Saturday, November 7
Racing Santander
Málaga are bottom and still without a win in eleven games, with five draws. Racing Santander, 16th, are winless in five away games and have conceded 29 goals this season, more than any other side in the table. If Racing lose, the relegation zone gains another contender, since they have 11 points and Levante, 18th, have 10.
Valencia
Saturday, November 7
Real Madrid
Third-placed Real Madrid come in on a four-game winning streak and play their game of the round against second-from-bottom Valencia, who have yet to win at home and have scored three goals in six home games. The gap in the table is wide: the game matters more to Real Madrid as pressure on Atlético de Madrid and Barcelona, who won't have played yet, than as a fight for position.
Elche
Sunday, November 8
Betis
Betis sit fourth, in the last Champions League spot, and away from home they have two wins, two draws and one defeat in five games. They visit an Elche side that has yet to win at home: four defeats and one draw in five home games. Elche are 17th, just above the relegation zone, and are the home side that most needs the result.
Real Sociedad
Sunday, November 8
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad are 5th and hold the Europa League spot, after four straight wins before their most recent defeat. At home, they have won three of five. Rayo Vallecano, 12th, are winless in five away games and have conceded 13 goals on the road.
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, November 6
17:00 — Sevilla vs Alavés — Sevilla 0-0 Alavés: a goalless draw to open the round.
Saturday, November 7
10:00 — Málaga vs Racing Santander — Málaga 1-2 Racing Santander: Málaga went ahead in the first half and lost at home.
12:15 — Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruña — Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruña: goalless draw.
14:30 — Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao — Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Bilbao: draw.
17:00 — Valencia vs Real Madrid — Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid: away win for Real Madrid.
Sunday, November 8
10:00 — Elche vs Betis — Elche 0-2 Betis: away win for Betis.
12:15 — Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano — Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano: home win for Real Sociedad.
14:30 — Villarreal vs Getafe — Villarreal 2-0 Getafe: home win for Villarreal.
14:30 — Celta de Vigo vs Levante — Celta de Vigo 0-0 Levante: goalless draw.
17:00 — Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona — Atlético de Madrid 1-2 Barcelona: Atlético opened the scoring, Barcelona equalised late in the first half and went ahead in the second, with two goals from Fermín López.
The round
Friday belongs to Sevilla: a side coming off a defeat and missing three players host an Alavés team that hasn't won away. On Saturday, Málaga try to end an eleven-game winless run against Racing Santander, and Real Madrid face, in Valencia, a home side that has yet to win at home. At Osasuna, the hosts take on Athletic Bilbao, who have scored just three goals in four away games; Espanyol, 14th, host Deportivo La Coruña, 8th, who have yet to win more than once away from home.
On Sunday, Betis visit Elche and Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano. Getafe visit Villarreal without an away goal this season, and Levante, 18th, visit Celta de Vigo without an away win. The day ends with Atlético de Madrid vs Barcelona, which decides who comes out of the round closer to the title and how much Real Madrid need to respond.
Absences
For Sevilla, Marcao and Peque are out injured, Bueno is suspended after a red card, and Romero and Sierra are doubtful. For Alavés, M. Rodriguez is out with an ankle injury.
Scenarios
✓ Barcelona stay top at the end of the round. (held) Barcelona beat Atlético de Madrid 2-1 away in the last game of the round, and Real Madrid, who also won, started the round with fewer points.
✓ Real Madrid win away at Valencia. (held) Real Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 in Valencia.
✗ Málaga earn their first win of the season against Racing Santander. (missed) Málaga lost 2-1 at home to Racing Santander after going ahead in the first half, and are still winless.
✓ Elche remain winless at home against Betis. (held) Elche lost 2-0 at home to Betis and are still without a home win.
Standings before Matchday 12
Pos.
Team
Points
Played
Won
Drawn
Lost
GD
1
Barcelona
30
11
10
0
1
34
2
Atlético Madrid
28
11
9
1
1
14
3
Real Madrid
27
11
9
0
2
18
4
Betis
23
11
7
2
2
3
5
Real Sociedad
19
11
6
1
4
0
6
Sevilla
17
11
5
2
4
-2
7
Athletic Bilbao
15
10
4
3
3
4
8
Deportivo La Coruña
14
11
3
5
3
1
9
Villarreal
12
11
3
3
5
0
10
Celta de Vigo
12
11
2
6
3
0
11
Alavés
12
11
3
3
5
-2
12
Rayo Vallecano
12
10
3
3
4
-5
13
Getafe
12
11
3
3
5
-8
14
Espanyol
11
11
3
2
6
-1
15
Osasuna
11
11
3
2
6
-11
16
Racing Santander
11
11
3
2
6
-14
17
Elche
10
11
2
4
5
-4
18
Levante
10
11
2
4
5
-5
19
Valencia
9
11
2
3
6
-9
20
Málaga
5
11
0
5
6
-13
How both teams are doing, game by game
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Sevilla
Alavés
6
52
-2
17
LWLDL
11
36
-2
12
LDLLD
Málaga
Racing Santander
20
15
-13
5
LDLDL
16
33
-14
11
LWLDL
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruña
14
33
-1
11
WLLDL
8
42
1
14
WLDLD
Osasuna
Athletic Bilbao
15
33
-11
11
LLWLD
7
50
4
15
WWLDD
Valencia
Real Madrid
19
27
-9
9
WLDDL
3
82
18
27
WWWWL
Elche
Betis
17
30
-4
10
LWDDW
4
70
3
23
WDLWD
Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
5
58
0
19
LWWWW
12
40
-5
12
WLDDW
Celta de Vigo
Levante
10
36
0
12
LDWDW
18
30
-5
10
LLWDD
Villarreal
Getafe
9
36
0
12
LWDLW
13
36
-8
12
WLDLW
Atlético Madrid
Barcelona
2
85
14
28
WWWWW
1
91
34
30
WLWWW
What the round changed for the next one
At the top
Atlético de Madrid 1-2 Barcelona: Atlético opened the scoring, Barcelona equalised late in the first half and went ahead in the second, with two goals from Fermín López. — Barcelona take top spot into their home game against Villarreal, and Atlético de Madrid have to respond straight away, away at Getafe.
Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid: away win for Real Madrid. — Real Madrid keep the pressure on the leaders and host Celta de Vigo on a run of five straight wins.
Elche 0-2 Betis: away win for Betis. — Betis hold on to the last Champions League spot and visit sixth-placed Sevilla, in a game that can widen or narrow the gap to the teams behind them.
Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano: home win for Real Sociedad. — Real Sociedad stay in the race for the European places and visit Racing Santander, who come in off a win.
Barcelona won the only head-to-head at the top and came out of the round with an edge over Real Madrid, who also won and held on to third. Atlético de Madrid's five-game winning streak is over, and they head into their next game, away at Getafe, needing to respond. For the leaders, Villarreal at home is a chance to stretch the gap; for Real Madrid, Celta de Vigo at home calls for the same result. Further down, Betis defend the Champions League spot at Sevilla, and Real Sociedad, at Racing Santander, try to keep in touch.
At the bottom
Málaga 1-2 Racing Santander: Málaga went ahead in the first half and lost at home. — Málaga go to Osasuna still without a win this season, and the game is one of their few chances to get off the bottom.
Celta de Vigo 0-0 Levante: goalless draw. — Levante, who picked up points away, host Elche in a direct relegation-zone clash.
Little moved at the bottom. Málaga lost at home after going ahead and are still winless, while Racing Santander climbed and got some breathing room. Elche lost at home to Betis and still haven't won at home, and Levante drew in Vigo without conceding. That makes next round's Levante vs Elche the biggest game at the bottom, and Osasuna vs Málaga and Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia follow the same logic: whoever wins there pulls clear of the zone for good.
Results
Sevilla 0-0 Alavés: a goalless draw to open the round.
Málaga 1-2 Racing Santander: Málaga went ahead in the first half and lost at home.
Espanyol 0-0 Deportivo La Coruña: goalless draw.
Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Bilbao: draw.
Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid: away win for Real Madrid.
Elche 0-2 Betis: away win for Betis.
Real Sociedad 1-0 Rayo Vallecano: home win for Real Sociedad.
Villarreal 2-0 Getafe: home win for Villarreal.
Celta de Vigo 0-0 Levante: goalless draw.
Atlético de Madrid 1-2 Barcelona: Atlético opened the scoring, Barcelona equalised late in the first half and went ahead in the second, with two goals from Fermín López.
Scenarios observed for this round's teams
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first
57
Opening goal before the 30th minute
27
One of the teams fails to score
25
Matchday Macro Index
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
26
32
10 of 10 games in the round · 20 clubs in the competition table · 20 clubs with season stats · 0 of 10 games with a published market
Context
23
27
10 of 10 games with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away records · 9 clubs in qualification or relegation spots
Trends
22
22
10 of 10 games with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with a record of games without scoring
Macro Index
90
100
Sum of the four components
How the Macro Index is computed
The Macro Index adds up four components with fixed weights: data, 32; context, 27; trends, 22; scenarios, 19. This round, data scored 26 of 32, context 23 of 27, trends 22 of 22 and scenarios 19 of 19, for a total of 90 of 100. In data, what held the score back was that none of the ten games has a published market; the other three components come from the table, home and away records and each club's season stats.
Atlético Madrid
Barcelona
