Premier League: the bottom of the table hosts the top

Matchweek 10: Sunderland, Forest and Palace host Chelsea, City and Liverpool; Brighton and Brentford meet in the top-of-the-table clash.

The round's thesis

The Premier League's bottom three are at home to clubs from the top of the table: Sunderland host Chelsea, Nottingham Forest host Manchester City and Crystal Palace host Liverpool. The matchweek comes down to what the bottom can do at home against the top, while on Sunday Brighton and Brentford play the only head-to-head between two clubs from the top group.

What is at stake

In the title race, Arsenal lead and Manchester City are second, one win behind. Arsenal host Hull City, who have gone five games without a win, and City visit a Nottingham Forest side that has yet to score at home. If both win, the order stays the same; if City slip up, Arsenal pull clear.

In the Champions League places, Brighton are third, Chelsea fourth, and Liverpool and Brentford are right behind, with narrow margins between them. Brighton host Brentford, Chelsea visit Sunderland and Liverpool visit Crystal Palace, so three of the top five play away against the bottom three and the race could change on Sunday.

At the bottom, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace occupy the three relegation places, and Manchester United are just above, level on points with Crystal Palace. Both play on Sunday, Palace against Liverpool and United against Aston Villa: if Palace take more points than United, the two swap places.

This round's matches

Anchor match

Brighton

Sunday, November 8

Brentford

Brighton come in as the league's top scorers and, at home, have won three of their four games and drawn the other. Brentford are the only one of the two yet to lose away: they have drawn all four of their away games, but won none. It is the game of the matchweek because it is the only head-to-head between two clubs from the top group: Brighton are third, Brentford sixth, and whoever leaves Brighton with the three points strengthens their place in the race for the European spots while Chelsea and Liverpool play away at the same time.

Arsenal

Saturday, November 7

Hull City

Arsenal have won all four of their home games and conceded only two goals at home; overall, they have lost once in nine games and come in on a four-game winning run. Hull City draw a lot, five of their nine games, and have gone at least five matches without a win. It is the most favourable fixture on the leaders' schedule: if they win, and Manchester City slip up in Nottingham on the same Saturday, they pull clear in the title race.

Nottingham Forest

Saturday, November 7

Manchester City

Nottingham Forest have not scored a single goal at home this season: four games as hosts, three defeats and a draw. Manchester City, in second, have lost their last two games after three wins and need to respond to stop Arsenal getting away at the top. The game measures whether City's attack, which scores away from home, can overcome the hosts' worst attacking spell.

Crystal Palace

Sunday, November 8

Liverpool

Crystal Palace have the defence that has conceded the most goals in the league and have won only once in four home games. Liverpool have not lost away from home: they have won three and drawn one of their four away games, while at home they have only one win. For Palace, who are in the relegation zone, it is a chance to pull away from the bottom; for Liverpool, in fifth, it is the trip that could bring them closer to the Champions League places.

Sunderland

Sunday, November 8

Chelsea

Sunderland are bottom, with one win in nine games, and have scored a single goal in their four home games. Chelsea, in fourth, are far stronger at home than away: on the road they have won twice, lost twice and conceded seven goals. It is the trip on which Chelsea defend the last Champions League place, with Liverpool and Brentford right behind, and both of them are also playing away.

Manchester United

Sunday, November 8

Aston Villa

Manchester United have won once in nine games and come in on two straight defeats, after three draws; they sit 17th, level on points with Crystal Palace, the first club inside the relegation zone. Aston Villa, in tenth, are unbeaten in five games and have won twice away from home. It is the game that closes the matchweek and tells whether United finish Sunday above or below the line.

Every match this round

All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).

Friday, November 6

17:00 — Everton vs Coventry — Everton 3-1 Coventry

Saturday, November 7

09:30 — Leeds vs Tottenham — Leeds 1-0 Tottenham
12:00 — Fulham vs Newcastle — Fulham 1-1 Newcastle
12:00 — Arsenal vs Hull City — Arsenal 1-0 Hull City
14:30 — Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City

Sunday, November 8

11:00 — Brighton vs Brentford — Brighton 2-0 Brentford
11:00 — Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool
11:00 — Ipswich vs Bournemouth — Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth
11:00 — Sunderland vs Chelsea — Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea
13:30 — Manchester United vs Aston Villa — Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa

The round

Friday has a single game, Everton v Coventry, which opens the matchweek with the seventh-placed side against a club still trying to pull away from the bottom. Saturday has four games: Leeds, unbeaten at home, host Tottenham; Fulham host Newcastle; Arsenal host Hull City; and Nottingham Forest host Manchester City in the last game of the day, which could shake up the top spot. Sunday has five games, four of them kicking off at the same time: Brighton v Brentford, Crystal Palace v Liverpool, Ipswich v Bournemouth and Sunderland v Chelsea. Manchester United and Aston Villa close the matchweek. What the matchweek decides is whether the bottom of the table can hold the big clubs at home and whether Sunday, with three of the top five visiting the bottom, reshuffles the Champions League places.

Absences

The opening game comes with absences on both sides. Coventry are without Amenda and Wright, and Thomas, Eccles and Woolfenden are doubts. For Everton, Grealish and George are also doubts.

Scenarios

✗ Nottingham Forest fail to score against Manchester City and remain without a home goal this season. (missed) Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City 3-1 at home and scored three goals, so the scenario did not come true.
✓ Arsenal beat Hull City and finish the matchweek top of the table. (held) Arsenal beat Hull City 1-0 and finished the matchweek top of the table.
✓ At least one of the bottom three takes points at home against Chelsea, Manchester City or Liverpool. (held) Sunderland beat Chelsea 1-0 and Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City 3-1, both at home.
✗ Brentford avoid defeat at Brighton and stay unbeaten away from home. (missed) Brentford lost 2-0 at Brighton and suffered their first away defeat of the season.
✗ Manchester United finish the matchweek outside the relegation zone. (missed) Manchester United drew 4-4 with Aston Villa and finished the matchweek in the bottom three.

Premier League table before the matchweek

Pos.	Team	Played	Points	GD
1	Arsenal	9	24	9
2	Manchester City	9	21	10
3	Brighton	9	19	17
4	Chelsea	9	16	4
5	Liverpool	9	15	2
6	Brentford	9	14	7
7	Everton	9	13	0
8	Bournemouth	9	12	1
9	Tottenham	9	12	0
10	Aston Villa	9	12	-3
11	Hull City	9	11	1
12	Leeds	9	11	1
13	Newcastle	9	11	-3
14	Ipswich	9	11	-4
15	Fulham	9	9	-2
16	Coventry	9	9	-7
17	Manchester United	9	7	-5
18	Crystal Palace	9	7	-12
19	Nottingham Forest	9	6	-6
20	Sunderland	9	5	-10

Team performance in each game

Home	Away	Pos. (home)	Points % (home)	GD (home)	Points (home)	Last 5 (home)	Pos. (away)	Points % (away)	GD (away)	Points (away)	Last 5 (away)
Everton	Coventry	7	48	0	13	WLLDW	16	33	-7	9	WLLWW
Leeds	Tottenham	12	41	1	11	LDDLD	9	44	0	12	WWWDL
Arsenal	Hull City	1	89	9	24	WWWWL	11	41	1	11	DDLDL
Fulham	Newcastle	15	33	-2	9	DWWLD	13	41	-3	11	LWLLW
Nottingham Forest	Manchester City	19	22	-6	6	LDLLL	2	78	10	21	LLWWW
Brighton	Brentford	3	70	17	19	WLWWW	6	52	7	14	WDLDW
Crystal Palace	Liverpool	18	26	-12	7	LLLWD	5	56	2	15	LWWLW
Ipswich	Bournemouth	14	41	-4	11	DDLWL	8	44	1	12	WWWLL
Sunderland	Chelsea	20	19	-10	5	LDLLL	4	59	4	16	WLWWL
Manchester United	Aston Villa	17	26	-5	7	LLDDD	10	44	-3	12	DWWDW

What the round changed for the next one

At the top

Arsenal 1-0 Hull City — With the win and City's slip, Arsenal pull clear at the top and go to Newcastle with a more comfortable lead.
Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City — A third straight defeat knocks City out of second and turns the home game against Fulham into a test of their response.
Brighton 2-0 Brentford — Brighton move up to second and visit Hull City with the chance to keep the pressure on Arsenal.
Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool — Liverpool take fourth place and host Manchester United needing to hold on to it against a rival in trouble.

Arsenal won and Manchester City lost in Nottingham, so the leaders pull clear at the top, while Brighton, who beat Brentford, move up to second and drop City to third. Liverpool, by winning at Crystal Palace, took fourth place and Chelsea dropped out of the top four. In the next matchweek, Newcastle v Arsenal is the leaders' test away from home; Hull City v Brighton measures whether the second-placed side can keep up the pace; Manchester City v Fulham demands a response from City at home; and Liverpool v Manchester United puts the fourth-placed side up against a club fighting to climb off the bottom.

At the bottom

Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea — Sunderland leave the bottom spot and visit Aston Villa, while Chelsea lose ground and host Leeds needing a response.
Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa — The draw keeps United in the bottom three and makes the trip to Liverpool a game for trying to get out of the zone.
Everton 3-1 Coventry — The defeat leaves Coventry close to the relegation zone and adds weight to the home game against Crystal Palace.

Sunderland beat Chelsea and climbed off the bottom, which passed to Crystal Palace after their defeat to Liverpool; Manchester United drew with Aston Villa and remain in the bottom three, and Coventry lost to Everton and stay close to the zone. In the next matchweek, Coventry v Crystal Palace is the clearest head-to-head at the bottom; Aston Villa v Sunderland measures whether Sunderland's revival has legs away from home; and Liverpool v Manchester United decides whether United get back to picking up points against a side from the top.

Results

Goal scenarios observed for this matchweek's teams

Scenario	Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than in the first	58
One of the teams fails to score	29
Opening goal before the 30th minute	25

Índice Macro for the matchweek

Component	Value	Maximum	Source
Data	26	32	10 of 10 matchweek games · 20 clubs in the competition table · 20 clubs with season stats · 0 of 10 games with a published market
Context	23	27	10 of 10 games with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away record · 8 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends	22	22	10 of 10 games with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios	19	19	10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with record of games without scoring
Índice Macro	90	100	Sum of the four components

How the Macro Index is computed

The Índice Macro measures how much of the analysis rests on data that has come in. It adds up four parts: data, up to 32 points; context, up to 27; trends, up to 22; and scenarios, up to 19. This matchweek, data scores 26, context 23, trends 22 and scenarios 19, for 90 out of 100. Data and context fell short of the maximum: data because none of the ten games has a published market, context because only eight clubs are in qualification or relegation places; trends and scenarios have full coverage of the matchweek.

Sources

Official source: Premier League