Premier League: matchweek 9, from Liverpool v Arsenal to Coventry v Sunderland
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1.The round's thesis
2.What is at stake
3.This round's matches
4.Every match this round
5.The round
6.Scenarios
7.Standings before the matchweek
8.Team performance, game by game
9.What the round changed for the next one
9.1.At the top
9.2.At the bottom
9.3.Surprises
10.Results
11.Scenarios observed among this matchweek's teams
12.Favourite and margin in each game
13.Índice Macro for the matchweek
14.What the market says
14.1.Liverpool vs Arsenal
14.2.Chelsea vs Manchester United
14.3.Bournemouth vs Leeds
14.4.Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
14.5.Coventry vs Sunderland
14.6.Manchester City vs Brighton
15.How the Macro Index is computed
16.Sources
17.Read also
Premier League matchweek 9: City and Arsenal at the top, top-four places at stake and Coventry v Sunderland at the bottom.
The round's thesis
Manchester City and Arsenal share the lead, and each faces a top-four rival: City host Brighton and Arsenal visit Liverpool. At the bottom of the table, Coventry and Sunderland, both in the relegation zone, face each other. Those two battles frame the matchweek.
What is at stake
At the top, City and Arsenal are level on points, with Brighton just behind them boasting the league's best goal difference. If one takes more points than the other this weekend, they pull ahead; if both win, nothing changes.
In the race for the places near the top, Liverpool are fourth and Chelsea fifth: Chelsea can only overtake Liverpool if they beat Manchester United and Liverpool fail to beat Arsenal. Brentford, Leeds, Newcastle and Aston Villa are bunched just behind them, and each team's result has little impact on the race at the top.
At the bottom, Sunderland and Coventry are a point apart, with Nottingham Forest between them on points. A Sunderland win at Coventry lifts Sunderland off the bottom and sends Coventry there; if Coventry win, they open up a gap over their direct rival.
This round's matches
Anchor match
Liverpool
Sunday, November 1
Arsenal
This is the game that swings the matchweek: Arsenal, level with Manchester City at the top, visit fourth-placed Liverpool. Liverpool have won just once at home this season and drawn twice; Arsenal have lost only once away. Both sides have something to lose, with Arsenal defending the lead and Liverpool their top-four place, which is why this game carries more weight than Manchester City v Brighton.
Chelsea
Saturday, October 31
Manchester United
Fifth-placed Chelsea host Manchester United, who are 16th. United have not won any of their four away games and come into this match with two defeats interspersed with three draws. Chelsea can only overtake Liverpool if they win here and Liverpool fail to beat Arsenal: this game is tied to Liverpool's result.
Bournemouth
Saturday, October 31
Leeds
Bournemouth, 13th, host seventh-placed Leeds, who have drawn five of their eight games. The league positions favour the visitors, but Bournemouth have drawn two and won one of their four home games: this is a meeting of sides that tend to share the points.
Brentford
Saturday, October 31
Nottingham Forest
Sixth-placed Brentford are among the sides with the most draws: five in eight games. Nottingham Forest, 18th, face a team that is hard to beat and come into the game without a home win this season, with three defeats and one draw. Forest drew their last game after three straight defeats.
Coventry
Saturday, October 31
Sunderland
Coventry and Sunderland sit 19th and 20th, a point apart, and the winner gets off the bottom in a direct clash with a fellow struggler. Sunderland have yet to win away this season; Coventry have lost three of their four home games.
Manchester City
Saturday, October 31
Brighton
Manchester City host third-placed Brighton, having won all four of their home games. Both arrive on the same run: defeat last time out after four wins. Brighton have the best goal difference in the league, so City cannot treat their visit as routine.
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Saturday, October 31
09:30 — Chelsea vs Manchester United — Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United: Chelsea won at home.
12:00 — Bournemouth vs Leeds — Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds: Bournemouth won at home.
12:00 — Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest: Brentford won at home.
12:00 — Coventry vs Sunderland — Coventry 3-1 Sunderland: Coventry won at home.
12:00 — Hull City vs Ipswich — Hull City 2-2 Ipswich: a home draw.
12:00 — Manchester City vs Brighton — Manchester City 0-1 Brighton: Brighton won away.
14:30 — Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace: Tottenham won at home.
17:00 — Aston Villa vs Fulham — Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham: a home draw.
Sunday, November 1
13:30 — Liverpool vs Arsenal — Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal: Arsenal won away.
Monday, November 2
17:00 — Newcastle vs Everton — Newcastle 0-1 Everton: Everton won away.
The round
The matchweek opens on Saturday with Chelsea v Manchester United, a game that matters more to Chelsea's top-four place than to United. On the same day, Manchester City v Brighton and Coventry v Sunderland span the two ends of the table, while Brentford v Nottingham Forest shows whether Forest can climb out of the relegation zone. On Sunday, Liverpool v Arsenal carries the most weight: it determines who takes the lead and who holds on to a top-four place. Monday closes the matchweek with Newcastle v Everton, two mid-table sides a point apart, the final game before the table changes shape again.
Scenarios
✗ Manchester City remain top at the end of the matchweek. (missed) Manchester City lost at home to Brighton and dropped to second; Arsenal beat Liverpool to take the lead.
✗ Liverpool avoid defeat at home to Arsenal. (missed) Liverpool lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal.
✗ Sunderland climb off the bottom by beating Coventry. (missed) Sunderland lost 3-1 to Coventry and remain bottom.
✗ Nottingham Forest climb out of the relegation zone. (missed) Nottingham Forest lost 2-0 to Brentford and remain in the relegation zone, now in 19th.
✓ Chelsea win at home against Manchester United. (held) Chelsea beat Manchester United 2-0 at Stamford Bridge and took fourth place.
Standings before the matchweek
Pos.
Team
Points
Played
W
D
L
GD
1
Manchester City
21
8
7
0
1
11
2
Arsenal
21
8
7
0
1
8
3
Brighton
16
8
5
1
2
16
4
Liverpool
15
8
4
3
1
3
5
Chelsea
13
8
4
1
3
2
6
Brentford
11
8
2
5
1
5
7
Leeds
11
8
2
5
1
3
8
Newcastle
11
8
3
2
3
-2
9
Aston Villa
11
8
3
2
3
-3
10
Hull City
10
8
2
4
2
1
11
Everton
10
8
2
4
2
-1
12
Ipswich
10
8
3
1
4
-4
13
Bournemouth
9
8
2
3
3
-1
14
Tottenham
9
8
2
3
3
-2
15
Fulham
8
8
2
2
4
-2
16
Manchester United
7
8
1
4
3
-3
17
Crystal Palace
7
8
2
1
5
-10
18
Nottingham Forest
6
8
1
3
4
-4
19
Coventry
6
8
2
0
6
-9
20
Sunderland
5
8
1
2
5
-8
Team performance, game by game
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points won % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points won % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Chelsea
Manchester United
5
54
2
13
LWWLD
16
29
-3
7
LDDDL
Bournemouth
Leeds
13
38
-1
9
WWLLD
7
46
3
11
DDLDW
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
6
46
5
11
DLDWD
18
25
-4
6
DLLLW
Coventry
Sunderland
19
25
-9
6
LLWWL
20
21
-8
5
DLLLL
Hull City
Ipswich
10
42
1
10
DLDLD
12
42
-4
10
DLWLW
Manchester City
Brighton
1
88
11
21
LWWWW
3
67
16
16
LWWWW
Tottenham
Crystal Palace
14
38
-2
9
WWDLD
17
29
-10
7
LLWDL
Aston Villa
Fulham
9
46
-3
11
WWDWL
15
33
-2
8
WWLDD
Liverpool
Arsenal
4
62
3
15
WWLWD
2
88
8
21
WWWLW
Newcastle
Everton
8
46
-2
11
WLLWL
11
42
-1
10
LLDWD
What the round changed for the next one
At the top
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal: Arsenal won away. — Arsenal took the lead and host Hull City; Liverpool dropped to fifth and visit Crystal Palace with no room for a slip-up in the top-four race.
Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United: Chelsea won at home. — Chelsea took fourth place from Liverpool and visit bottom side Sunderland; United remain near the bottom and host Aston Villa.
Arsenal won away to move ahead of Manchester City at the top, while Chelsea's home win took them into fourth place at Liverpool's expense. Next matchweek, Nottingham Forest v Manchester City and Crystal Palace v Liverpool carry more weight: City need a response against a side in the relegation zone, and Liverpool visit a rival battling the drop, with the top four now one place above them.
At the bottom
Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest: Brentford won at home. — Nottingham Forest lost again and remain in the relegation zone; they host Manchester City, while sixth-placed Brentford visit Brighton.
Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace: Tottenham won at home. — Crystal Palace dropped into the relegation zone and host Liverpool; Tottenham visit Leeds in a meeting of mid-table sides.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest lost and sit in the relegation zone alongside Sunderland, while Manchester United failed to win and are just one place above it, level on points with Palace. Next matchweek, Sunderland v Chelsea and Nottingham Forest v Manchester City pit two clubs near the bottom against teams near the top, while Manchester United v Aston Villa matters for those looking to pull away from the relegation zone.
Surprises
Manchester City 0-1 Brighton: Brighton won away. — City lost at home and opened the door for Arsenal; Brighton remain third and host Brentford, a game that matters for a place near the top.
Coventry 3-1 Sunderland: Coventry won at home. — Coventry climbed out of the relegation zone and host Everton; Sunderland are alone at the bottom and visit Chelsea.
Newcastle 0-1 Everton: Everton won away. — Everton climbed to seventh and open the next matchweek against Coventry; Newcastle visit Fulham after failing to win at home this matchweek.
No one expected Coventry to beat favourites Sunderland at home, Manchester City to slip up against Brighton or Everton to win at Newcastle. Those results reshape the next matchweek: Everton v Coventry opens the weekend between two teams on the rise, Brighton v Brentford has a place near the top at stake, and Nottingham Forest v Manchester City becomes a test for a City side that lost the lead.
Results
Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United: Chelsea won at home.
Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds: Bournemouth won at home.
Manchester City 0-1 Brighton: Brighton won away.
Brentford 2-0 Nottingham Forest: Brentford won at home.
Hull City 2-2 Ipswich: a home draw.
Coventry 3-1 Sunderland: Coventry won at home.
Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace: Tottenham won at home.
Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham: a home draw.
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal: Arsenal won away.
Newcastle 0-1 Everton: Everton won away.
Scenarios observed among this matchweek's teams
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first
58
One of the teams fails to score
29
Opening goal before 30 minutes
24
Favourite and margin in each game
Home
Away
Favourite
Favourite (%)
Gap to least likely outcome (pp)
Confidence (0-100)
Balance
Chelsea
Manchester United
Chelsea
55
32
32
Low
Bournemouth
Leeds
Bournemouth
46
18
19
Medium
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
Brentford
48
22
22
Medium
Coventry
Sunderland
Sunderland
42
13
13
High
Hull City
Ipswich
Hull City
36
8
4
High
Manchester City
Brighton
Manchester City
60
39
40
Low
Tottenham
Crystal Palace
Tottenham
62
46
43
Low
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
48
21
22
Medium
Liverpool
Arsenal
Arsenal
42
14
13
High
Newcastle
Everton
Newcastle
41
14
11
High
Índice Macro for the matchweek
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
32
32
10 of 10 matchweek games · 20 clubs in the league table · 20 clubs with season statistics · 10 of 10 games with published markets
Context
23
27
10 of 10 games with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away records · 8 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends
22
22
10 of 10 games with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with records of games without scoring
Índice Macro
96
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Liverpool vs Arsenal
The market puts Arsenal slightly ahead, but with only a narrow gap to the other outcomes: this is one of the most open games of the matchweek.
Chelsea vs Manchester United
The market makes Chelsea clear favourites over United.
Bournemouth vs Leeds
The market gives the hosts a moderate edge, despite Leeds being higher in the table.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
The market favours Brentford by a moderate margin.
Coventry vs Sunderland
The market leans towards Sunderland despite them being away and bottom, but only by a narrow margin.
Manchester City vs Brighton
The market makes City heavy favourites, with one of the biggest margins of the matchweek.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Índice Macro measures how much of the analysis is supported by the available data, from 0 to 100, combining four parts: data (up to 32), context (up to 27), trends (up to 22) and scenarios (up to 19). This matchweek, data scored 32, context 23, trends 22 and scenarios 19, for a total of 96. All ten games have published markets, and league standings and season statistics are available for all 20 clubs. The index measures information coverage, not the probability of any result.