Politics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. 

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
, including both the chart and downloadable files.

December 31

November 30

March 31

October 31

April 30

September 30

July 31

August 31

September 15

June 30

May 31

June 22

June 15

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

English

Spanish

Portuguese

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31$2.1MVol.8%Yes8No92

November 30$199KVol.3%Yes3.5No96.5

Market details

Timeline & payout