Politics

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Mojtaba Khamenei

Alireza Arafi

No Head of State

Reza Pahlavi

Masoud Pezeshkian

Hassan Rouhani

Hassan Khomeini

Abbas Araghchi

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

Ahmad Vahidi

Maryam Rajavi

Sadegh Larijani

Mohsen Araki

Ali Motahari

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

Ali Asghar Hejazi

Sadegh Mahsouli

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

Reza Pirzadeh

Massoud Rajavi

Mustafa Hijri

Nasir Hosseini

Navid Shomali

Mohammad Khatami

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

Saeed Jalili

Hassan Shariatmadari

Ali Larijani

Mohammad Pakpour

Iran leader end of 2026?

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Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei$7.2MVol.93%Yes93.3No6.7

Alireza Arafi$2.3MVol.2%Yes2.1No97.9

No Head of State$1.2MVol.2%Yes2.1No98

Reza Pahlavi$734KVol.1%Yes1.1No99

Masoud Pezeshkian$1MVol.<1%Yes0.6No99.4

Hassan Rouhani$963.8KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

Hassan Khomeini$1.5MVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Abbas Araghchi$855KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Muhammad Mirbaqiri$485.6KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf$938.5KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Ahmad Vahidi$795KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Maryam Rajavi$916.7KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Sadegh Larijani$595.8KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Mohsen Araki$334.5KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Ali Motahari$875.4KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel$476.1KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Mostafa Pourmohammadi$3.4MVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Ali Asghar Hejazi$398.2KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Sadegh Mahsouli$280.9KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad$1.1MVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani$339.2KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Reza Pirzadeh$192.5KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Massoud Rajavi$441.4KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Mustafa Hijri$245.3KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Nasir Hosseini$306.4KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Navid Shomali$268.3KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Mohammad Khatami$5.2MVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Seyed Hossein Mousavian$3.7MVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Saeed Jalili$430.1KVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Hassan Shariatmadari$3.2MVol.<1%Yes0.1No99.9

Market details

Timeline & payout