Elections

World elections

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.

To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution.

The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor.

If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order.

If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

No Next Minister by Feb 28

Naftali Bennett

Avigdor Lieberman

Gadi Eizenkot

Israel Katz

Moshe Feiglin

Ofer Winter

Itamar Ben Gvir

Yair Golan

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yoram Cohen

Bezalel Smotrich

Eli Cohen

Yair Lapid

Elazar Stern

Matan Kahana

Amir Ohana

Yoaz Hendel

Benny Gantz

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

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Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 28$93KVol.33%Yes32.8No67.2

Naftali Bennett$20.8KVol.27%Yes26.6No73.5

Avigdor Lieberman$44.5KVol.23%Yes23.4No76.6

Gadi Eizenkot$3.3KVol.7%Yes6.8No93.3

Israel Katz$9.7KVol.4%Yes3.8No96.2

Moshe Feiglin$4.1KVol.2%Yes1.8No98.2

Ofer Winter$11.5KVol.1%Yes1.3No98.8

Itamar Ben Gvir$2.6KVol.1%Yes1No99

Yair Golan$2.6KVol.<1%Yes0.85No99.2

Benjamin Netanyahu$1.7KVol.<1%Yes0.6No99.4

Yoram Cohen$1.7KVol.<1%Yes0.4No99.6

Bezalel Smotrich$2.9KVol.<1%Yes0.35No99.7

Eli Cohen$1.5KVol.<1%Yes0.25No99.8

Yair Lapid$1.6KVol.<1%Yes0.2No99.8

Elazar Stern$2.1KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Matan Kahana$1.8KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Amir Ohana$1.4KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Yoaz Hendel$1.3KVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Benny Gantz$4KVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Market details

Timeline & payout