Politics

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. 

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).  

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan  government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. 

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. 

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

Note: this market is mutually exclusive. 


Nicolás Maduro

Delcy Rodríguez

No Head of State

Pete Hegseth

María Corina Machado

Marco Rubio

Edmundo González

Jorge Rodríguez

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

Evan Pettus

Dan Caine

Dinorah Figuera

Donald Trump

Vladimir Padrino López

Richard Grenell

Frank Donovan

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

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Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro$4.1MVol.93%Yes93.5No6.6

Delcy Rodríguez$2.6MVol.6%Yes6No94

No Head of State$1.7MVol.<1%Yes0.35No99.7

Pete Hegseth$9.4MVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

María Corina Machado$1.8MVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Marco Rubio$1.6MVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Edmundo González$1.6MVol.<1%Yes0.15No99.9

Jorge Rodríguez$1.3MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Diosdado Cabello Rondón$2.2MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Evan Pettus$5.7MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Dan Caine$4.2MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Dinorah Figuera$3.1MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Donald Trump$1.2MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Vladimir Padrino López$891.3KVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Richard Grenell$32.8MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Frank Donovan$26MVol.<1%Yes0.05No100

Market details

Timeline & payout