Politics

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (also known as the Makkah Accord or Mecca Joint Defense Agreement) is a collective-defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan on August 7, 2026, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is regarded as an attack against them all. The agreement has subsequently been described by its signatories as open to additional countries.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country formally joins the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The listed country will be considered to have formally joined if either of the following occurs:
- the country signs the Agreement or a formal accession protocol or instrument that, by its terms or official characterization, makes it a party, member, or signatory; or
- the country and the Agreement’s existing parties officially announce, jointly or separately, that the country has become a party, member, or signatory.

Statements of intent, applications, invitations to join, negotiations, parliamentary authorization, approval in principle, or general defense cooperation will not qualify. A separate bilateral or multilateral defense agreement will not qualify unless it is officially identified as accession to the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement.

Once a qualifying accession has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent withdrawal, suspension, reversal, or termination.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Egypt

Bahrain

Syria

Kuwait

Lebanon

Qatar

Jordan

Iraq

Sudan

Yemen

Somalia

Morocco

Algeria

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Oman

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

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Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt$11.8KVol.13%Yes12.5No87.5

Bahrain$2.4KVol.10%Yes9.5No90.5

Syria$8.7KVol.9%Yes9.4No90.6

Kuwait$4.4KVol.9%Yes8.5No91.5

Lebanon$3.7KVol.7%Yes7.1No92.8

Qatar$2.7KVol.7%Yes7No93

Jordan$1.6KVol.7%Yes6.7No93.3

Iraq$3.8KVol.6%Yes6No94

Sudan$3.4KVol.5%Yes5.3No94.8

Yemen$6.2KVol.5%Yes4.5No95.5

Somalia$5.7KVol.4%Yes4.2No95.9

Morocco$4.5KVol.3%Yes3.2No96.8

Algeria$543.4Vol.2%Yes2.1No97.9

Iran$3.7KVol.2%Yes1.9No98.1

United Arab Emirates$21.2KVol.2%Yes1.7No98.3

Oman$2.5KVol.<1%Yes0.7No99.3

Market details

Timeline & payout