Politics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

John Brennan

James Comey

Mahmoud Khalil

James Clapper

Lee Jun-seok

Susan Rice

Candace Owens

Tom Homan

Brandon Johnson

Anthony Fauci

Kash Patel

Letitia James

Pam Bondi

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

Benjamin Netanyahu

Adam Schiff

Barack Obama

Lisa Cook

Loretta Lynch

Bill Clinton

John Kerry

Hillary Clinton

Gavin Newsom

Joe Biden

Who will be arrested before 2027?

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Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan$42.7KVol.12%Yes12No88

James Comey$42.6KVol.8%Yes8No92

Mahmoud Khalil$5.4KVol.8%Yes7.5No92.5

James Clapper$10.6KVol.7%Yes6.5No93.5

Lee Jun-seok$1.6KVol.6%Yes5.9No94.2

Susan Rice$2.5KVol.5%Yes4.9No95.2

Candace Owens$389.5Vol.5%Yes4.5No95.5

Tom Homan$52.7KVol.4%Yes3.6No96.4

Brandon Johnson$4.1KVol.4%Yes3.5No96.5

Anthony Fauci$237.8KVol.3%Yes3.1No96.9

Kash Patel$879.5Vol.3%Yes2.9No97.1

Letitia James$9.5KVol.3%Yes2.9No97.2

Pam Bondi$7.2KVol.2%Yes2.5No97.5

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero$33.5KVol.2%Yes2.3No97.7

Benjamin Netanyahu$9.2KVol.2%Yes2No98

Adam Schiff$23.4KVol.2%Yes1.7No98.3

Barack Obama$34.1KVol.2%Yes1.7No98.3

Lisa Cook$6.9KVol.2%Yes1.7No98.3

Loretta Lynch$5.9KVol.2%Yes1.6No98.4

Bill Clinton$5.6KVol.1%Yes1.4No98.7

John Kerry$943.7Vol.1%Yes1.3No98.8

Hillary Clinton$80.4KVol.1%Yes1.3No98.8

Gavin Newsom$56.5KVol.1%Yes1.1No98.9

Joe Biden$9.6KVol.1%Yes1.1No98.9

Market details

Timeline & payout