Economy and finance

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

0 (0 bps)

2 (50 bps)

1 (25 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

12+ (300+ bps)

5 (125 bps)

6 (150 bps)

7 (175 bps)

8 (200 bps)

9 (225 bps)

10 (250 bps)

11 (275 bps)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

25 bps increase

No change

25 bps decrease

50+ bps increase

50+ bps decrease

Fed Decision in December?

Politics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Tech and science

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple

NVIDIA

Microsoft

Alphabet

SpaceX

Tesla

Saudi Aramco

Amazon

Largest Company end of December 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Sports

Soccer

Brazil Série A

Brazil Série B

Premier League

La Liga

Bundesliga

Ligue 1

Serie A (Italy)

Champions League

Motorsports

Basketball

US Congress

American football

Elections

Midterms

US presidential

US Senate

US House

World elections

Geopolitics

Crypto

Culture

Movies

Celebrities

Formula 1

3.5–3.9%

3.0–3.4%

4.0-4.4%

2.5–2.9%

4.5%+

2.0–2.4%

1.0–1.4%

<1.0%

1.5–1.9%

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

$445K - $458K

<$445K

$458K - $471K

$471K - $484K

$510K+

$484K - $497K

$497K - $510K

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

Bank of England decision in December?

$407K - $411K

$403K - $407K

<$403K

$411K - $415K

$415K - $419K

$419K - $423K

$423K+

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

0.0%–0.8%

-0.8%–0.0%

0.8%–1.6%

-1.6%– -0.8%

1.6%–2.4%

4.0%+

2.4%–3.2%

3.2%–4.0%

-2.4%– -1.6%

<-2.4%

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

2.6%

2.5%

2.8%

2.7%

2.4%

≤2.2%

2.3%

2.9%

3.0%

≥3.1%

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

3.7%

3.6%

3.8%

≤3.2%

3.5%

3.4%

3.3%

3.9%

4.0%

4.1%

4.2%

≥4.3%

October Inflation US - Annual

Hike–Pause–Hike

Hike–Pause–Pause

Other

Hike–Hike–Hike

Hike–Hike–Pause

Pause–Pause–Hike

Pause–Pause–Pause

Pause–Hike–Hike

Pause–Hike–Pause

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed Decision in January?

Broadcom

TSMC

Largest Company end of November 2026?

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