Bundesliga: the seventh round, from leaders Bayern de Munique to the bottom side
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1.The round's thesis
2.What is at stake
3.This round's matches
4.Every match this round
5.The first block
6.The second block
7.Round news
8.Absences
9.Scenarios
10.Table before the matchday
11.Both teams in each game
12.Scenarios seen across this matchday's clubs
13.What the market sees in each game
14.Matchday Macro Index
15.What the market says
15.1.Freiburg vs Bayern de Munique
15.2.Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
15.3.Mainz vs Werder Bremen
15.4.Augsburg vs Union Berlin
15.5.Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
15.6.Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
16.How the Macro Index is computed
17.Sources
18.Read also
Bundesliga matchday 7 runs Friday to Sunday: Bayern visit Freiburg, Dortmund host Frankfurt and Gladbach go looking for points.
The round's thesis
This matchday comes down to the gap between the clubs running the table and the ones in trouble. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund come in first and second, both unbeaten. Borussia Mönchengladbach open on Friday still without a point. Freiburg, who have won every home game, host the leaders on Sunday.
What is at stake
At the top, Bayern Munich and Dortmund are level on points, with Bayern ahead on goal difference, and Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen sit right behind them in the Champions League places. If the leaders slip up in Freiburg, Dortmund could go top on their own. At the bottom, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin hold the relegation spots and Paderborn the relegation play-off spot. All three play this matchday, and Schalke 04, just above them, visit Köln. In mid-table, Mainz and Elversberg, fifth and sixth, hold the European places just below the top.
This round's matches
Anchor matchFreiburg vs Bayern de MuniqueSunday, October 25, 13:30
The leaders visit third place. Freiburg have won all three home games and conceded little there. Bayern Munich are still unbeaten, but on the road they've won only one of three and drawn the other two. It's the hardest test yet of the leaders' unbeaten run, and the game that closes the matchday.
Freiburg14%
Draw16%
Bayern de Munique72%
Stuttgart vs Borussia MönchengladbachFriday, October 23, 15:30
The matchday opens with the bottom club. Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost all six games they've played and have conceded more goals than anyone in the league. Stuttgart, in 13th, have only two wins, but they're at home to the only side still without a point.
Stuttgart70%
Draw16%
Borussia Mönchengladbach14%
Mainz vs Werder BremenSaturday, October 24, 10:30
Mainz, in fifth, have won all three of their away games and have yet to win at home. Werder Bremen sit eighth. Home ground runs against the Mainz pattern, and Bremen have drawn three of their six games.
Mainz56%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen22%
Augsburg vs Union BerlinSaturday, October 24, 10:30
Union Berlin are in the relegation zone, have lost both their away games and conceded plenty in them. Augsburg are still unbeaten at home and score regularly there, which makes this a chance to open a gap on a rival from the bottom half.
Augsburg52%
Draw24%
Union Berlin24%
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtSaturday, October 24, 13:30
Borussia Dortmund, second and unbeaten, have the league's meanest defence. Eintracht Frankfurt have been alternating wins and defeats and have let in ten goals in three away games, while Dortmund are still unbeaten at home.
Borussia Dortmund66%
Draw18%
Eintracht Frankfurt16%
Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenSunday, October 25, 11:30
Bayer Leverkusen, in fourth, arrive in good form to face a Hoffenheim side that has lost four of six. The visitors also leak goals on the road, though, and Hoffenheim have yet to finish a game without scoring this season: that's where the hosts can make it awkward.
Hoffenheim34%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen42%
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, October 23
15:30 — Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · Stuttgart 70%
11:30 — Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen · Bayer Leverkusen 42%
13:30 — Freiburg vs Bayern de Munique · Bayern de Munique 72%
The first block
Friday and Saturday set the scene. Stuttgart open against Borussia Mönchengladbach, and on Saturday morning Mainz, Augsburg, Leipzig, Paderborn and Köln play at 10:30 Brasília time, with Dortmund closing out the day. If Dortmund beat Frankfurt before Bayern take the field, the leaders go into Sunday under pressure.
The second block
Sunday answers what the rest of the weekend set up. Hoffenheim v Leverkusen and Freiburg v Bayern Munich close the matchday. They will show whether the leaders hold on to top spot with Dortmund having already played, and whether Leverkusen tighten their grip on a Champions League place away from home.
Round news
No news confirmed by an official source for this matchday so far.
Absences
So far the API lists no confirmed absences for any of the matchday's nine games.
Scenarios
Borussia Mönchengladbach are still without a point at the end of the matchday.
Bayern Munich are still unbeaten this season at the end of the matchday.
Borussia Dortmund beat Eintracht Frankfurt at home.
Mainz win at home for the first time this season.
Table before the matchday
Position
Team
Points
Goal difference
Played
1
Bayern de Munique
14
17
6
2
Borussia Dortmund
14
7
6
3
Freiburg
13
9
6
4
Bayer Leverkusen
13
7
6
5
Mainz
10
4
6
6
Elversberg
10
1
6
7
RB Leipzig
9
5
6
8
Werder Bremen
9
0
6
9
Hamburgo
9
-9
6
10
Augsburg
8
4
6
11
Eintracht Frankfurt
8
-6
6
12
Colônia
7
-3
6
13
Stuttgart
6
-2
6
14
Hoffenheim
6
-3
6
15
Schalke 04
5
-3
6
16
Paderborn
5
-4
6
17
Union Berlin
5
-12
6
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
-12
6
Both teams in each game
Home
Away
Position (home)
Points % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Position (away)
Points % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13
33
-2
6
LWLLW
18
0
-12
0
LLLLL
Mainz
Werder Bremen
5
56
4
10
WLWLW
8
50
0
9
DDWDW
Augsburg
Union Berlin
10
44
4
8
LDLDW
17
28
-12
5
DWLLL
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
7
50
5
9
LWLWL
6
56
1
10
WLDLW
Paderborn
Hamburgo
16
28
-4
5
DLWLL
9
50
-9
9
WWWLL
Colônia
Schalke 04
12
39
-3
7
LWLDL
15
28
-3
5
LLDWD
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
78
7
14
DDWWW
11
44
-6
8
WLDWL
Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
14
33
-3
6
WLLWL
4
72
7
13
WWWDW
Freiburg
Bayern de Munique
3
72
9
13
LWDWW
1
78
17
14
WDWWD
Scenarios seen across this matchday's clubs
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than the first
60
Scoring opened before 30 minutes
28
One of the teams fails to score
24
What the market sees in each game
Home
Away
Favourite
Favourite (%)
Gap (points)
Conviction (0-100)
Balance
Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Stuttgart
70
57
55
Low
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
RB Leipzig
68
53
52
Low
Augsburg
Union Berlin
Augsburg
52
29
28
Medium
Mainz
Werder Bremen
Mainz
56
34
34
Low
Colônia
Schalke 04
Colônia
46
21
19
Medium
Paderborn
Hamburgo
Paderborn
42
17
13
Medium
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
66
50
49
Low
Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
42
18
13
Medium
Freiburg
Bayern de Munique
Bayern de Munique
72
58
58
Low
Matchday Macro Index
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
32
32
9 of 9 matchday games · 18 clubs in the league table · 18 clubs with season stats · 9 of 9 games with a published market
Context
24
27
9 of 9 games with both teams in the table · 9 of 9 with home/away record · 9 clubs in qualification or relegation places
Trends
22
22
9 of 9 games with five recent results for both sides · 9 of 9 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
9 of 9 games with goals broken down by period · 9 of 9 with a record of games without scoring
Macro Index
97
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Freiburg vs Bayern de Munique
The market sees Bayern Munich as clear favourites, even away from home, and gives Freiburg little credit for their home record.
Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
The market has Stuttgart as clear favourites; the draw and a Borussia Mönchengladbach win carry little weight.
Mainz vs Werder Bremen
The market favours Mainz on the strength of their overall record, not their home form, which still has no win in it.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin
The market favours Augsburg, with Union Berlin as the weaker side.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
The market has Dortmund as comfortable favourites, in line with the home side's defensive solidity.
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
The market leans towards Leverkusen, but not by much: Hoffenheim get real credit for playing at home.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Macro Index adds up four components, weighted data 32, context 27, trends 22 and scenarios 19, each scored on the coverage of fixtures, table, team stats and markets that came in. This reading came to 97 out of 100: data 32 of 32, context 24 of 27, trends 22 of 22 and scenarios 19 of 19.