Premier League, round 8: City at Villa and Liverpool v Brighton
104views
Premier League Matchweek 8, Friday to Sunday: the top, the Champions League places and the bottom of the table, game by game.
The round's thesis
Manchester City, top with seven wins from seven, visit Aston Villa on Saturday. The same Saturday, Chelsea, who hold the fourth Champions League spot, host Tottenham, and on Sunday fifth-placed Liverpool host Brighton, who are defending third place. In a short round, Friday to Sunday, both ends of the table move at the same time.
What is at stake
Title: City lead with Arsenal right behind, and both play on Saturday. If both win, the order stays the same; a City slip, away from home, is the only way the round reopens the top spot.
Champions League places: Chelsea are fourth and Liverpool, fifth, are a point behind. Chelsea host Tottenham, who are fighting to pull away from the bottom; Liverpool host Brighton, currently third, who are defending their place. What Chelsea do on Saturday sets what Liverpool need to do on Sunday.
Relegation: Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland are in the zone, with Coventry a point above. Coventry host Fulham, Forest visit Ipswich, and bottom side Sunderland host Leeds without a win in their last five games. Three games that directly move the line.
This round's matches
Anchor matchLiverpool vs BrightonSunday, October 25, 11:00
Brighton come in third, unbeaten in their last five and with the league's best goal difference, and are defending their place. Liverpool, fifth, are a point behind Chelsea, who hold the last Champions League spot: a home win only puts them back in the top four if Chelsea fail to beat Tottenham. It's the anchor game because Brighton are defending third and Liverpool are chasing fourth, and both play after Chelsea and Arsenal have already played.
Liverpool46%
Draw24%
Brighton32%
Ipswich vs Nottingham ForestFriday, October 23, 16:00
The round opens on Friday with a mid-table side against one in the relegation zone. Ipswich, 10th, have alternated defeats and wins for five games. Nottingham Forest, 19th, have lost their last three and won only once in their last five.
Ipswich30%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest44%
Aston Villa vs Manchester CitySaturday, October 24, 08:30
Manchester City arrive with seven wins from seven and top spot. Aston Villa, 12th, have a negative goal difference and haven't strung together two straight wins in their last five games. Hosting the leaders is Villa's chance to turn their season around; for City, it's about keeping their lead over Arsenal.
Aston Villa20%
Draw22%
Manchester City58%
Arsenal vs EvertonSaturday, October 24, 11:00
Arsenal, second, have won four of their last five and are at home. Everton, eighth, have won once in that span and drawn three. For Arsenal, it's the game to keep up the chase of City without dropping points.
Arsenal68%
Draw22%
Everton10%
Coventry vs FulhamSaturday, October 24, 11:00
Coventry and Fulham are separated by one point: Coventry are 17th, just above the zone, and Fulham, 18th, are in it. Coventry lost their last game after two wins; Fulham won their last. Whoever loses comes out of the round closer to the bottom.
Coventry32%
Draw28%
Fulham40%
Chelsea vs TottenhamSaturday, October 24, 13:30
Chelsea are fourth and have won their last two, after a defeat, a draw and a defeat. Tottenham, 16th, are a point above the relegation zone and won their last game after four without a win. For Chelsea, winning at home also means shutting the door on fourth place for Liverpool.
Chelsea57%
Draw22%
Tottenham20%
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Friday, October 23
16:00 — Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest · Nottingham Forest 44%
Saturday, October 24
08:30 — Aston Villa vs Manchester City · Manchester City 58%
11:00 — Arsenal vs Everton · Arsenal 68%
11:00 — Coventry vs Fulham · Fulham 40%
13:30 — Chelsea vs Tottenham · Chelsea 57%
Sunday, October 25
11:00 — Crystal Palace vs Newcastle · Newcastle 40%
11:00 — Hull City vs Brentford · Brentford 56%
11:00 — Liverpool vs Brighton · Liverpool 46%
11:00 — Manchester United vs Bournemouth · Manchester United 48%
13:30 — Sunderland vs Leeds · Leeds 38%
The first block
Friday and Saturday set up the round. Ipswich and Nottingham Forest open on Friday, and Saturday brings the top: City at Aston Villa, Arsenal against Everton and Chelsea against Tottenham, plus the head-to-head between Coventry and Fulham. By the end of Saturday, the title race and the bottom of the table will have a partial answer, and Chelsea will have shown what position they take into Sunday.
The second block
Sunday answers what Friday and Saturday set up. Liverpool and Brighton play already knowing what Chelsea and Arsenal did, and Sunderland close the round against Leeds with the bottom of the table already shaken up by the earlier games. In between come Manchester United v Bournemouth, Crystal Palace v Newcastle and Hull City v Brentford, mid-table games that decide the order more than the zone.
Round news
No news with a confirmed source so far for this round.
Absences
The absences API lists absences in two of the ten games. In Aston Villa v Manchester City, Villa are without Manzambi, Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka, and City are without Semenyo; Nunes is a doubt. In Ipswich v Nottingham Forest, Forest are without Igor Jesus, and Gibbs-White and Savona are doubts, as are Ipswich's Lukic and Taylor. For the other eight games the API lists no absences so far, and the picture may change up to the day before.
Scenarios
Manchester City remain top at the end of the round.
Arsenal beat Everton at home and stay second.
Liverpool finish the round in the top four.
Sunderland are still in the relegation zone at the end of the round.
Table before the round
Pos.
Team
P
Pts
GD
1
Manchester City
7
21
12
2
Arsenal
7
18
6
3
Brighton
7
16
18
4
Chelsea
7
13
4
5
Liverpool
7
12
1
6
Brentford
7
10
5
7
Leeds
7
10
3
8
Everton
7
10
1
9
Hull City
7
9
1
10
Ipswich
7
9
-4
11
Newcastle
7
8
-4
12
Aston Villa
7
8
-4
13
Manchester United
7
7
0
14
Crystal Palace
7
7
-8
15
Bournemouth
7
6
-4
16
Tottenham
7
6
-4
17
Coventry
7
6
-8
18
Fulham
7
5
-3
19
Nottingham Forest
7
5
-4
20
Sunderland
7
4
-8
Team form in each game
Home
Away
Home pos.
Home points won (%)
Home GD
Home points
Home last 5
Away pos.
Away points won (%)
Away GD
Away points
Away last 5
Ipswich
Nottingham Forest
10
43
-4
9
LWLWL
19
24
-4
5
LLLWD
Aston Villa
Manchester City
12
38
-4
8
WDWLD
1
100
12
21
WWWWW
Arsenal
Everton
2
86
6
18
WWLWW
8
48
1
10
LDWDD
Coventry
Fulham
17
29
-8
6
LWWLL
18
24
-3
5
WLDDL
Chelsea
Tottenham
4
62
4
13
WWLDL
16
29
-4
6
WDLDD
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
14
33
-8
7
LWDLW
11
38
-4
8
LLWLD
Hull City
Brentford
9
43
1
9
LDLDD
6
48
5
10
LDWDD
Liverpool
Brighton
5
57
1
12
WLWDW
3
76
18
16
WWWWD
Manchester United
Bournemouth
13
33
0
7
DDDLD
15
29
-4
6
WLLDD
Sunderland
Leeds
20
19
-8
4
LLLLD
7
48
3
10
DLDWD
Scenarios seen across the round's clubs
Scenario
Frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than in the first
59
One of the teams fails to score
27
Opening goal before 30 minutes
23
Favourite and market conviction in each game
Home
Away
Favourite
Favourite (%)
Gap (points)
Conviction (0-100)
Balance
Ipswich
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
44
16
16
Medium
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Manchester City
58
38
37
Low
Arsenal
Everton
Arsenal
68
57
52
Low
Coventry
Fulham
Fulham
40
13
10
High
Chelsea
Tottenham
Chelsea
57
37
36
Low
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Newcastle
40
14
10
High
Hull City
Brentford
Brentford
56
36
34
Low
Liverpool
Brighton
Liverpool
46
21
19
Medium
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Manchester United
48
22
22
Medium
Sunderland
Leeds
Leeds
38
8
7
High
Índice Macro for the round
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
32
32
10 of 10 games in the round · 20 clubs in the competition table · 20 clubs with season stats · 10 of 10 games with a published market
Context
23
27
10 of 10 games with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away record · 8 clubs in a qualification or relegation zone
Trends
22
22
10 of 10 games with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with a record of games without scoring
Índice Macro
96
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Liverpool vs Brighton
The market leans towards Liverpool, at home, but without much margin: Brighton are still a real alternative for anyone reading the table.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
The market has Nottingham Forest as slight favourites, even away and in the relegation zone: a reading the table doesn't support.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
The market treats City as clear favourites, consistent with their perfect run; Villa come in as a distant alternative.
Arsenal vs Everton
The market's firmest favourite of the round: Arsenal, at home, with Everton well behind.
Coventry vs Fulham
A slight lean towards Fulham, even away from home; it's one of the games where the market commits least.
Chelsea vs Tottenham
The market has Chelsea as clear favourites, consistent with their league position and their two most recent wins.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Índice Macro measures how much of the round's analysis rests on data that has come in; it is not the probability of any result. It adds up four components, with maximums of 32 (data), 27 (context), 22 (trends) and 19 (scenarios). This round: data 32, context 23, trends 22 and scenarios 19, for a total of 96 out of 100. Each component is the coverage of games, table and team stats: here, the round's ten games, the twenty clubs in the table and in the season stats, and the market published for every game. Context falls short of the maximum because it counts how many clubs are in a qualification or relegation zone, and this table has eight.
Liverpool 46%
Brighton 32%
Ipswich 30%
Nottingham Forest 44%
Aston Villa 20%
Manchester City 58%
Arsenal 68%
Everton 10%
Coventry 32%
Fulham 40%
Chelsea 57%
Tottenham 20%
