Serie A: Roma in Naples, Inter and Lazio on top and a logjam at the bottom

The Serie A round from Friday to Sunday: Napoli vs Roma, the top with Lazio and Inter Milan, and Genoa vs Venezia at the bottom of the table.

The round's thesis

This round decides whether the top of Serie A ends the weekend level or with a single leader: Lazio play on Saturday, Inter Milan answer on Sunday, and the two go in on the same points. In between, Roma and Milan defend their Champions League places away from home, and at the bottom Genoa vs Venezia shows who breaks away from a group of clubs level on points.

What is at stake

The top: Inter Milan and Lazio have the same points, with Inter ahead in the table on goal difference. Lazio host Parma on Saturday and Inter host Fiorentina on Sunday, so whoever plays first puts the pressure on the other; if both win, nothing changes at the top, and a slip from either side opens up the lead.

The Champions League places: Roma are third and Milan fourth, with Como right behind in fifth, one point off Milan. Como play Sassuolo on Saturday, and Milan don't close out their round until Sunday afternoon in Udine; if Como win, Milan take the field knowing their place is under threat.

The bottom: Fiorentina, Parma and Venezia are in the relegation zone, and Udinese and Genoa have the same points just above. Of the clubs at the bottom, only Genoa and Venezia face each other; Fiorentina and Parma visit Inter and Lazio, and Udinese host Milan. A result in Genoa vs Venezia moves the zone directly, while the others depend on upsets against the teams at the top.

This round's matches

Anchor matchNapoli vs RomaSaturday, October 24, 13:00

Roma are third, in the Champions League places, and have yet to concede away from home; Napoli are ninth, mid-table, and have won two of their three home games, scoring five and conceding two. It's the game of the round where the defence of a side near the top meets a home team that keeps picking up points at home, and that's why it's the anchor: if Roma leave Naples without conceding, they pull clear of those behind; if Napoli hold firm, the race for the Champions League places stays open.

Napoli 34%

Draw 28%

Roma 38%

Lazio vs ParmaSaturday, October 24, 15:45

Lazio are level on points with Inter and host Parma, who are in the relegation zone, score little and have failed to find the net more often than any other club. Lazio still concede few goals, and their result is what sets up the answer Inter will have to give. Patric and Furlanetto are out.

Lazio 68%

Draw 22%

Parma 10%

Inter de Milão vs FiorentinaSunday, October 25, 08:30

Inter have the most productive home attack among the clubs in this round and host a Fiorentina side that are in the relegation zone, have won little and concede plenty on the road. The game comes after Lazio's, which tells Inter how much they need to stay ahead.

Inter de Milão 72%

Draw 16%

Fiorentina 11%

Genoa vs VeneziaSunday, October 25, 11:00

Genoa and Venezia are at the bottom of the table, with Venezia in last place and Genoa out of the zone only on goal difference, level on points with Fiorentina, Parma and Udinese. Both defences are among those that concede the most, and Genoa are without Venturino, Venezia without Šverko. The winner breaks away from the bottom group; the loser moves closer to relegation.

Genoa 45%

Draw 29%

Venezia 26%

Lecce vs JuventusSunday, October 25, 14:00

Juventus visit a Lecce side that concede a lot at home and have won two of their last five, sitting 12th. Juventus, eighth, have been inconsistent, with one win in their last five, and are outside the European places. It's a game where the bigger name has to show it can turn favourite status into points.

Lecce 11%

Draw 22%

Juventus 68%

Udinese vs MilanSunday, October 25, 16:45

Milan visit an Udinese side that have lost their last five and score little at home. It's also the last game of the round: Milan are fourth, the last Champions League place, with Como right behind, and only take the field knowing what Como did.

Udinese 18%

Draw 24%

Milan 58%

Every match this round

All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).

Friday, October 23

• 15:45 — Torino vs Monza · Torino 44%

Saturday, October 24

• 10:00 — Cagliari vs Bologna · Bologna 38%
• 10:00 — Como vs Sassuolo · Como 65%
• 13:00 — Napoli vs Roma · Roma 38%
• 15:45 — Lazio vs Parma · Lazio 68%

Sunday, October 25

• 08:30 — Inter de Milão vs Fiorentina · Inter de Milão 72%
• 11:00 — Atalanta vs Frosinone · Atalanta 54%
• 11:00 — Genoa vs Venezia · Genoa 45%
• 14:00 — Lecce vs Juventus · Juventus 68%
• 16:45 — Udinese vs Milan · Milan 58%

The first block

Friday and Saturday set up the round. Torino vs Monza opens on Friday with two mid-table sides: Torino score little at home and Monza concede a lot on the road, which keeps the game open. On Saturday Lazio host Parma and post the first number Inter Milan will have to answer; Napoli vs Roma shows whether Roma's defence holds up away from home; and Como vs Sassuolo, with Sassuolo missing five players, sets the pressure Milan face on Sunday afternoon.

The second block

Sunday answers what Saturday set up, which is why the weekend reads back to front. Inter Milan host Fiorentina knowing what Lazio did; Atalanta vs Frosinone pits a well-placed Frosinone against an Atalanta side in poor form; Genoa vs Venezia and Lecce vs Juventus show who stays at the bottom and who lives up to favourite status; and Udinese vs Milan closes the round with Milan's Champions League place at stake, after Como have already played.

Round news

No news with a confirmed source as of the day before: this page carries no information that isn't in the round's data.

Absences

Sassuolo are the most depleted side, for the trip to Como: Koné (broken leg), Pieragnolo, Candé, Boloca and Paz are out. For Torino, who host Monza, F. Israel and Pellegri are out. In Napoli vs Roma, Napoli are without Buongiorno and Roma without Bah, and Lazio, who host Parma, will be without Patric and Furlanetto. Atalanta lose Sulemana and Hien against Frosinone, Fiorentina lose Sottil for the game in Milan, Genoa lose Venturino and Venezia lose Šverko. Cagliari can't count on Idrissi. For Lecce vs Juventus and Udinese vs Milan, the API lists no absences.

Scenarios

• Roma keep a clean sheet in Naples and have still not conceded away from home.
• Lazio and Inter Milan win their games and stay level at the top of the table.
• Milan win in Udine and finish the round inside the top four.
• Genoa vs Venezia ends with goals at both ends.
• Juventus win in Lecce.

The table before the round

Both teams in each game

How goals come for the clubs in this round (observed frequencies)

What the market sees in each game

Round Índice Macro

What the market says

How the Macro Index is computed

Sources

• Official source: Serie A

Read also

• Round 6 — Série A
• Three-way tie at the top, collapse at the bottom
• Price Discovery: How Prediction Markets Turn Information into Probabilities