Serie A, round 9: Parma and Udinese face off at the bottom of the table
546views
Serie A's midweek round, game by game: Lazio and Inter Milan visit lower-table sides, and Parma and Udinese meet at the bottom.
The round's thesis
Lazio and Inter Milan, from the top half of the table, go on the road to face Sassuolo and Venezia, while Roma and Milan play at home. At the bottom, the round turns on a single game, Parma vs Udinese: the only one between two of the bottom five clubs.
What is at stake
Up top, the away sides are largely the leaders: Lazio visits Sassuolo, Inter Milan visits Venezia and Como visits Torino, while Roma hosts Cagliari. A slip by the traveling sides opens the door for those playing at home, and the table, before the end of the previous round, shows few points between the top four. At the bottom, Udinese, Genoa, Fiorentina and Parma were level on points, with Venezia one point off them; only Parma vs Udinese puts two of them head to head, and in the other three games the opponent comes from higher up. Whoever wins there gains breathing room their neighbors won't have, and whoever loses is exposed to the others' response.
This round's matches
Anchor match
Parma
Wednesday, October 28
Udinese
It's the game that weighs most in the round because it's the only one between two of the bottom five clubs in the table: the loser falls behind in a race where the points gap is minimal. Parma has won one of its four home games, and Udinese one of its three away; neither can claim an edge in venue or form.
Sassuolo
Tuesday, October 27
Lazio
Lazio arrives as the league's best away side: it has won all four of its away games. Sassuolo is still unbeaten at home (two wins and a draw), but plays with five absentees, among them Koné, out with a broken leg.
Torino
Tuesday, October 27
Como
Torino has won only two of its four home games. Como, among the top sides in the table, has won three of its five away games and arrives with no absentees; Torino is without Israel and Pellegri. It's a test for whoever wants to stay in the top four.
Milan
Wednesday, October 28
Bologna
Milan is still unbeaten and has won all three of its home games, but has drawn three of its last five. Bologna has won two of its four away games and comes off a win over Cagliari.
Venezia
Wednesday, October 28
Inter Milan
Inter Milan has the best attack in the league and hasn't lost any of its three away games (two wins and a draw). Venezia has won one of its four home games and lost the other three, and sits among the bottom sides in the table.
Fiorentina
Thursday, October 29
Atalanta
Two bad records collide: Fiorentina has yet to win at home (one draw and three defeats) and Atalanta has yet to pick up a point away (three defeats in three games). At least one of them will lose that record. Atalanta is without Hien, and Fiorentina loses Sottil.
Every match this round
All times are Brasília time (UTC−3).
Tuesday, October 27
14:30 — Sassuolo vs Lazio
16:45 — Roma vs Cagliari
16:45 — Torino vs Como
Wednesday, October 28
14:30 — Milan vs Bologna
14:30 — Parma vs Udinese
14:30 — Venezia vs Inter Milan
16:45 — Genoa vs Juventus
16:45 — Monza vs Napoli
Thursday, October 29
14:30 — Frosinone vs Lecce
16:45 — Fiorentina vs Atalanta
The round
Tuesday shows first who arrives in form: Lazio, which has won all four of its away games, tries to keep up the pace at Sassuolo, and Como, which has won three of its five away games, tests in Turin whether it belongs in the top group. On Wednesday, Milan looks to keep its perfect home record against Bologna; Inter Milan, unbeaten away, faces a Venezia side that has won one home game; Parma and Udinese find out who has less to lose; and Juventus and Napoli travel to Genoa and Monza, where the table will say whether their favorite status holds up. On Thursday, Fiorentina faces Atalanta in a clash of two poor records, and Frosinone, which has won three of its four home games, hosts Lecce, which has won two of its four away games.
Absences
Sassuolo goes into Tuesday with five absentees, the most of any club in the round, among them Koné, out with a broken leg. Lazio is without Patric and Furlanetto, Torino loses Israel and Pellegri and Atalanta can't count on Hien, while Fiorentina is without Sottil.
Scenarios
Parma vs Udinese has a winner: the game doesn't end in a draw.
Lazio avoids defeat at Sassuolo.
Fiorentina wins at home for the first time this season, against Atalanta.
Inter Milan beats Venezia and heads into the next round still unbeaten away from home.
Milan beats Bologna and keeps its perfect home record.
Standings before the end of the previous round
Pos.
Team
Played
Points
GD
Last 5
1
Inter Milan
7
19
12
WWDWW
2
Lazio
7
19
10
WWWDW
3
Roma
7
17
13
WDDWW
4
Como
8
17
7
WWDLW
5
Milan
7
15
7
WDWDD
6
Frosinone
7
13
4
WLWDW
7
Torino
8
13
2
WWWDL
8
Cagliari
8
13
-3
LLDWW
9
Juventus
7
11
1
LDWLD
10
Napoli
7
10
3
LWDWL
11
Atalanta
7
9
-1
LWLLL
12
Lecce
7
9
-3
WLLWL
13
Bologna
8
8
-2
WLWDL
14
Sassuolo
8
8
-4
LLDLW
15
Monza
8
7
-3
LWLWL
16
Udinese
7
4
-7
LLLLL
17
Genoa
7
4
-8
LWLDL
18
Fiorentina
7
4
-9
LLDWL
19
Parma
7
4
-9
LLWLD
20
Venezia
7
3
-10
WLLLL
Both teams in each game
Home
Away
Pos. (home)
Points % (home)
GD (home)
Points (home)
Last 5 (home)
Pos. (away)
Points % (away)
GD (away)
Points (away)
Last 5 (away)
Sassuolo
Lazio
14
33
-4
8
LLDLW
2
90
10
19
WWWDW
Roma
Cagliari
3
81
13
17
WDDWW
8
54
-3
13
LLDWW
Torino
Como
7
54
2
13
WWWDL
4
71
7
17
WWDLW
Milan
Bologna
5
71
7
15
WDWDD
13
33
-2
8
WLWDL
Parma
Udinese
19
19
-9
4
LLWLD
16
19
-7
4
LLLLL
Venezia
Inter Milan
20
14
-10
3
WLLLL
1
90
12
19
WWDWW
Genoa
Juventus
17
19
-8
4
LWLDL
9
52
1
11
LDWLD
Monza
Napoli
15
29
-3
7
LWLWL
10
48
3
10
LWDWL
Frosinone
Lecce
6
62
4
13
WLWDW
12
43
-3
9
WLLWL
Fiorentina
Atalanta
18
19
-9
4
LLDWL
11
43
-1
9
LWLLL
Scenarios observed across the round's teams
Scenario
Observed frequency (%)
More goals in the second half than in the first
56
Opening goal before the 30th minute
29
One of the teams fails to score
22
Favorite and market gap, game by game
Home
Away
Favorite
Favorite (%)
Gap to least likely (p.p.)
Conviction (0-100)
Balance
Sassuolo
Lazio
Lazio
40
14
10
High
Roma
Cagliari
Roma
72
63
58
Low
Torino
Como
Como
55
36
32
Low
Milan
Bologna
Milan
60
44
40
Low
Parma
Udinese
Udinese
39
9
8
High
Venezia
Inter Milan
Inter Milan
74
63
61
Low
Genoa
Juventus
Juventus
59
43
38
Low
Monza
Napoli
Napoli
50
26
25
Medium
Frosinone
Lecce
Frosinone
51
27
26
Medium
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Fiorentina
42
16
13
Medium
Round Macro Index
Component
Value
Maximum
Source
Data
32
32
10 of 10 games in the round · 20 clubs in the competition table · 20 clubs with season statistics · 10 of 10 games with a published market
Context
23
27
10 of 10 games with both teams in the table · 10 of 10 with home/away record · 9 clubs in a qualification or relegation zone
Trends
22
22
10 of 10 games with five recent results for both sides · 10 of 10 with average goals scored and conceded
Scenarios
19
19
10 of 10 games with goal distribution by period · 10 of 10 with a record of games without scoring
Macro Index
96
100
Sum of the four components
What the market says
Parma vs Udinese
The market separates the two only slightly, with a narrow edge for Udinese, even though it's the away side.
Sassuolo vs Lazio
The market puts Lazio ahead, but by a narrow margin, smaller than the gap between the two in the table would suggest; Sassuolo's unbeaten home record weighs in its favor.
Torino vs Como
The market treats Como as the clear favorite, even playing away from home.
Milan vs Bologna
The market sees Milan as the favorite, with Bologna far behind and the draw as the second scenario.
Venezia vs Inter Milan
The market's read is the firmest of the round, with Inter far ahead and little room for the draw.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
The market flips the table order and gives Fiorentina a narrow edge at home.
How the Macro Index is computed
The Macro Index runs from 0 to 100 and adds up four components: data, up to 32 points; context, up to 27; trends, up to 22; and scenarios, up to 19. Each one is the average of how much of the required information came in: the round's games, the table, the teams' statistics and the published markets. Market prices never go in: they are only used to count how many games have a market. This round the index is 96: data 32 of 32, context 23 of 27, trends 22 of 22 and scenarios 19 of 19. Context lost points because only nine of the twenty clubs are in a qualification or relegation zone in the table.
Parma
Udinese
Sassuolo
Lazio
Torino
Como
Milan
Bologna
Venezia
Inter Milan
Fiorentina
Atalanta
